South Sudan’s military has issued a second and more explicit evacuation order for civilians living in opposition-held areas of Jonglei State, warning that a large-scale military operation is imminent.
In a directive dated January 25 and signed by South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) spokesman Major General Lul Ruai Koang, the army ordered civilians in the Lou Nuer counties of Nyirol, Uror and Akobo to “evacuate for safety to government-controlled areas within 48 hours”.
The three counties are controlled by the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), led by detained First Vice President Riek Machar. The order warned that a military campaign dubbed “Operation Enduring Peace” would begin imminently.
Fighting between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and the SPLA-IO, now commanded by Machar’s deputy Oyet Nathaniel, has intensified since December, particularly in northern Jonglei.
The SPLA-IO has seized several SSPDF positions, capturing garrisons in Waat, Yuai and Pajut. The army has since mobilised additional troops and advanced northward in an effort to retake the areas.
Most government forces are now stationed in Poktap and Padiet in Duk County, a few kilometres from Pajut, where SPLA-IO front lines are located.
Warnings to civilians
The latest directive marks the second evacuation order issued in less than a month. A broader order on December 30 urged civilians to leave SPLA-IO-held areas to “avoid and minimise collateral damage”.
Following that order, several locations were struck by air attacks, including Lankien town in Nyirol County, where at least 11 people were killed, according to local officials.
The new order goes further, issuing explicit warnings to armed civilians and humanitarian organisations. Civilians carrying weapons who do not intend to fight government forces were instructed to surrender their firearms at the nearest SSPDF garrison.
It warned that armed civilians found near SPLA-IO facilities would be considered “legitimate military targets”.
The directive also called on youths not affiliated with the White Army — a loosely organised Nuer militia that has played a central role in previous conflicts — to move their families and livestock out of the affected areas.
Non-governmental organisations were given 48 hours to leave the three counties.
Analysts said the increasingly urgent language, the naming of the operation and the unprecedented ultimatum to aid agencies and civilians in the three counties pointed to preparations for a major government offensive.
Atrocity fears
The evacuation order came amid growing alarm over inflammatory rhetoric by senior military commanders deployed to the front lines in northern Jonglei State.
A day earlier, General Johnson Olony, assistant chief of defence forces for mobilisation and disarmament and commander of the Agwelek militia, told his fighters in Duk County to show no mercy during upcoming operations.
“When we arrive there, don’t spare an elderly, don’t spare a chicken, don’t spare a house or anything,” Olony said. “We are tired of problems every year until we have gotten old in problems.”
He framed the deployment of the army to northern Jonglei as a patriotic duty rather than a financial one, telling troops they were “defending the nation, not fighting for salaries”.
The Agwelek militia, which has been partially integrated into the national army, has recently been deployed to several strategic locations, including near the Heglig oilfields on the Sudanese border, following a tripartite agreement between South Sudan and rival Sudanese factions to protect oil infrastructure.
Olony was appointed to his current post by President Kiir in January 2025, despite a history marked by defections and allegations of human rights abuses.
South Sudan’s Greater Upper Nile region — encompassing Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states — has long been the epicentre of ethnically driven violence, with civilians, particularly women and children, frequently bearing the brunt of military campaigns.
UNMISS said it was “gravely concerned” by reports of General Olony urging troops to carry out indiscriminate violence against civilians in northern Jonglei, where more than 180,000 people have reportedly been displaced by recent fighting.
“Inflammatory rhetoric calling for violence against civilians, including the most vulnerable, is utterly abhorrent and must stop now,” said Graham Maitland, the mission’s officer-in-charge, urging leaders to halt hostilities and uphold the 2018 peace agreement.
The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan also warned that such language by senior military officials, combined with fresh troop mobilisation, risked triggering mass atrocities and ethnic violence.
Fears of return to war
Political analysts say the military buildup comes as South Sudan prepares for elections scheduled for December 2026, amid a deep economic crisis and a peace process that international monitors have described as severely weakened.
Boboya James Edimon, head of the Institute of Policy and Research, warned that fears of an SPLA-IO advance towards Juba could trigger a broader confrontation.
“If the fighting intensifies, political priorities will shift from reforms and civic processes back to survival and military calculations,” he said.
Human rights activist Ter Manyang Gatwech cautioned that commanders from both sides could be held individually accountable for abuses committed by forces under their control.
Observers warn that a forced withdrawal of aid agencies from parts of Jonglei could leave civilians trapped without protection or assistance in an area already devastated by food insecurity, flooding and displacement.