South Sudan is once again facing the threat of a civil war, as longstanding grievances, a deteriorating economy, and escalating political tensions converge. The intricate mixture of ethnic, political, and regional challenges is making widespread conflict increasingly likely jeopardizing the fragile progress achieved since independence (UNMISS, 2024; Sudan Tribune, 2025; International Crisis Group, 2024).
Years of instability and repeated failures in peace efforts have left the country’s social fabric in tatters and its governing institutions dangerously weak. The state’s inability to enforce law and order, address economic woes, or resolve ethnic disputes has bred insecurity and despair among the populace. International organizations warn that without urgent, all-encompassing reforms, South Sudan’s precarious peace could collapse, with dire consequences for the entire region (UNMISS, 2024; African Union, 2024).
Background: Deep Roots of Conflict
South Sudan’s independence in 2011 was greeted with hope and global goodwill, but this optimism quickly dissipated amid internal strife and violence. The roots of the current crisis lie in the long civil war with Sudan, fierce competition among liberation leaders, and simmering ethnic hostilities—most notably between the Dinka and Nuer (Johnson, 2016; Radio Tamazuj, 2021). The temporary unity forged during the fight for independence rapidly gave way to renewed rivalries in the new state.
Old animosities among ethnic groups were left unaddressed during peace negotiations before independence (UN Panel of Experts, 2023). Many political figures were more interested in consolidating their own power than in genuine reconciliation. Once a symbol of unity, the SPLM fractured along ethnic and personal lines, setting the stage for recurring cycles of violence (Johnson, 2016). The legacy of decades of war also left South Sudan awash with weapons and ex-soldiers unable to find civilian roles (UNMISS, 2014; Human Rights Watch, 2014). Weak institutions and limited economic opportunities have left the country vulnerable to renewed violence (World Bank, 2024).
Unravelling Peace Agreements: A Repeated Pattern of Failure
Since independence, South Sudan has witnessed several peace deals, each met with hope abroad but scepticism at home. The 2015 and 2018 peace agreements (ARCSS and R-ARCSS) only managed to briefly reduce violence before faltering on key issues like power-sharing, justice, and security reforms (UN Panel of Experts, 2023; International Crisis Group, 2024). Political elites have often used these deals as leverage for their interests, rather than as genuine roadmaps for healing (Radio Tamazuj, 2025). Delays, mistrust, and repeated violations have undermined every major agreement (International Crisis Group, 2024). Attempts to unify rival armed factions into a national force have failed, as leaders refuse to relinquish control of their militias. The absence of real accountability for past crimes has bred a culture of impunity, eroding public faith in both peace and reconciliation (Human Rights Watch, 2014; UNMISS, 2014). For the public, these political deals have not brought real change. Many South Sudanese see the political class as disconnected from their daily struggles, fuelling anger and disappointment with both the government and opposition (World Bank, 2024; Sudan Tribune, 2025).
Economic, Social, and Security Breakdown
South Sudan’s economy relies almost entirely on oil, and has been devastated by falling prices, rampant corruption, and the spillover of conflict from neighbouring Sudan. Government employees routinely go unpaid, and rising inflation has made everyday essentials unaffordable for most people (World Bank, 2024; Sudan Tribune, 2025; UNHCR, 2024).
Oil revenue has plummeted due to insecurity and turmoil, especially near border regions. As a result, the state cannot provide even the most basic services. Many families depend on humanitarian aid, but this too is threatened by dwindling funds and restricted access (World Bank, 2024; UNHCR, 2024). With few job prospects, some young people are drawn into armed groups, perpetuating instability (Radio Tamazuj, 2024; UN Panel of Experts, 2024).
Endemic corruption and poor management have further undermined public trust (World Bank, 2024). Failure to pay wages has crippled critical sectors like health and education, with severe consequences for the country’s long-term prospects (Sudan Tribune, 2025; International Crisis Group, 2024).
Poverty, Intercommunal Violence, and Social Tensions
Most South Sudanese now live in poverty. Competition over dwindling resources and the spread of small arms has allowed intercommunal violence and cattle raids to flourish (Radio Tamazuj, 2024; UNMISS, 2024). Rising poverty has exacerbated tensions, as groups compete for access to land, water, and aid. The lack of law enforcement and proliferation of weapons means that even minor disputes can become deadly. Women and children are particularly at risk, often suffering the most from displacement and violence (UNHCR, 2024; Human Rights Watch, 2014).
The Sudan War’s Impact on South Sudan
The conflict between Sudan’s RSF and SAF has directly affected South Sudan. Both sides have used South Sudanese border areas for operations, leading to arms smuggling, displacement, and raids that further destabilize the country (UN Panel of Experts, 2024; Sudan Tribune, 2024; UNHCR, 2024; Radio Tamazuj, 2025). An influx of refugees from Sudan has stretched South Sudan’s limited resources (UNHCR, 2024; African Union, 2024). Alliances between cross-border armed groups risk escalating violence and could drag in regional powers, making peace even harder to achieve (International Crisis Group, 2024).
Dinka-Nuer Rivalry: Historical and Continuing Division
The seeds of today’s crisis were sown in the 1990s, during the liberation struggle. Leaders like John Garang, Samuel Gai Tut, William Abdalla Chuol Deng, and Gordon Kong were unable to resolve mistrust within the SPLM (Johnson, 2016; Radio Tamazuj, 2021; International Crisis Group, 2024).
Rivalries were often cast in ethnic terms, primarily between the Dinka and Nuer—South Sudan’s largest groups (Johnson, 2016). Disputes over leadership, strategy, and resources created deep resentments that erupted after independence (UNMISS, 2014; Sudan Tribune, 2025). Without real reconciliation, these wounds have festered. Political elites have repeatedly used ethnic identities to mobilize support, deepening national divisions (Human Rights Watch, 2014; African Union, 2024).
The 2013 Nuer Genocide
In December 2013, President Kiir accused Vice President Riek Machar of attempting a coup. The resulting violence saw government forces and allied militias systematically target Nuer civilians in Juba, as documented by the UN and human rights groups (UNMISS, 2014; Human Rights Watch, 2014; Sudan Tribune, 2014).
Eyewitnesses described horrific attacks on Nuer families. The trauma from these events shocked the world and left lasting scars in South Sudanese society. Survivors continue to seek justice and recognition for what they endured (International Crisis Group, 2024).
Accountability and the International Response
Despite abundant evidence, few have been prosecuted for the 2013 killings (UNMISS, 2014; UN Panel of Experts, 2023). Regional and international bodies have condemned the violence and supported calls for accountability, but persistent political rivalries have blocked justice (Sudan Tribune, 2025; African Union, 2024).
The absence of accountability has eroded public faith in both national and international systems. Many South Sudanese see this as evidence that violence is tolerated, and leaders are above the law, making reconciliation and deterrence of future atrocities all the more difficult (International Crisis Group, 2024).
Machar’s Detention and Ethnic Tensions
The detention of Riek Machar, widely seen as a product of Dinka-Nuer rivalry, has further polarized the country (Radio Tamazuj, 2025; Sudan Tribune, 2025; UN Panel of Experts, 2024). The longer Machar and other opposition leaders are held, the greater the risk of renewed conflict (UNMISS, 2024; International Crisis Group, 2024).
Many Nuer intellectuals interpret these detentions as part of a history of marginalization. Ongoing military operations against Nuer communities are viewed as attempts to weaken opposition, deepening intercommunal animosity.
The exclusion of Machar is seen as a calculated move by Kiir to neutralize a rival and secure succession, but it has only widened tribal divides. The risk of direct confrontation and even civil war grows as Nuer grievances remain unaddressed.
Sudan’s War and Regional Repercussions
Sudan’s internal conflict has spilled into South Sudan, with increased arms smuggling and disruptions to oil exports. The porous borders and lack of effective control have allowed illicit trade and insecurity to flourish (Sudan Tribune, 2024; UN Panel of Experts, 2024).
Neighbouring countries and external actors complicate the situation, with conflicting interests among Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Egypt making a coordinated response to the crisis elusive (Radio Tamazuj, 2025; UN reports, 2024).
Uganda’s 2026 Election and Regional Uncertainty
Uganda’s upcoming election is expected to be highly contentious, with President Museveni facing opposition and questions about succession as he nears 90 (Sudan Tribune, 2025; International Crisis Group, 2024). Instability in Uganda could have dramatic effects on South Sudan, especially if Ugandan troops are withdrawn and regional influence wanes (Radio Tamazuj, 2025). Museveni’s regime has been supporting president’s Kiir clench on power in South Sudan. Any turmoil in Uganda could embolden armed groups in South Sudan and make peaceful transition less likely (International Crisis Group, 2024; African Union, 2024).
A contested election or leadership change in Uganda could reduce resources and oversight for regional stability, increasing the risk of wider instability (Radio Tamazuj, 2025; UN Panel of Experts, 2024).
President Kiir’s Health and the Succession Crisis
Concerns about President Kiir’s health have sparked fears of a sudden leadership vacuum. As the founding leader, his absence could unleash fierce competition among the Dinka, Nuer, and Equatorian factions (Sudan Tribune, 2025; Radio Tamazuj, 2025; UN Panel of Experts, 2024; African Union, 2024). Kiir’s legacy as a liberation hero has delayed reforms and entrenched a personalized system of governance. His incapacitation or sudden death could trigger violent power struggles, with external factors likely intervening such as regional powers, RSF and SPLM/A-Nuba Mountain faction (International Crisis Group, 2024; UNMISS, 2024). The lack of a clear succession plan underscores the urgent need for constitutional reforms to prevent chaos and renewed conflict.
Prospects for Reconciliation and Nation-Building
Whether or not South Sudan descends again into civil war, the role of intellectuals and political leaders will be vital for the nation’s recovery. Progress depends on transitional justice, reconciliation, institutional reforms, and the creation of an inclusive constitution (UNMISS, 2024; African Union, 2024; International Crisis Group, 2024).
Intellectuals must challenge divisive narratives and promote unity. Through dialogue, civic education, and reform, they can help lay the foundation for a more stable society. Leaders must uphold the rule of law and protect the rights of all citizens, regardless of ethnicity (Radio Tamazuj, 2025; African Union, 2024; UNMISS, 2024).
The post-war period will demand extraordinary commitment to healing and reconstruction, but history shows that societies can emerge stronger if they confront the past and work together for a shared future (International Crisis Group, 2024).
Conclusion
South Sudan’s future hangs in the balance, as unresolved grievances, ethnic rivalries, and economic collapse threaten to trigger renewed civil war. Without urgent, inclusive reforms and real accountability, the risk of devastating violence remains high (UNMISS, 2024; African Union, 2024).
The key lesson is clear: sustainable peace cannot be dictated from above or by outside actors alone. It must be built from the ground up, with the involvement of all communities and honest leadership (International Crisis Group, 2024; UN Panel of Experts, 2024).
The stakes extend far beyond South Sudan’s borders—if conflict continues, regional stability will suffer. But if the right actions are taken now, South Sudan can still fulfill the promise of independence and secure a peaceful future (African Union, 2024; UNMISS, 2024).
The writer, Dr. Gak Deng Woul, is a South Sudanese researcher and political analyst based in Australia. He holds a B.A. in Linguistics from University of Khartoum, B.Sc. in Sociology and Social Anthropology from University of Juba, master’s degrees in International Relations, International Development, and Education from Deakin University, Australia as well as a PhD in refugee migration and settlement policies from Monash University, Australia. He can be reached via email at gakwoul@gmail.com
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.
References
African Union. (2024). Report on Transitional Justice in South Sudan.
Human Rights Watch. (2014). South Sudan’s New War: Abuses by Government and Opposition Forces.
International Crisis Group. (2024). South Sudan’s Fragile Peace.
Johnson, D. H. (2016). South Sudan: A New History for a New Nation. Ohio University Press.
Radio Tamazuj. (2021-2025). Various reports on South Sudan.
Sudan Tribune. (2024-2025). News coverage on South Sudan’s political crisis.
UNHCR. (2024). South Sudan Situation Report.
UNMISS. (2014, 2024). Human Rights Reports on South Sudan.
UN Panel of Experts. (2023-2024). Reports on South Sudan and Sudan.
World Bank. (2024). South Sudan Economic Monitor.