Kenya-led mediators on Monday explained why South Sudan’s proposed Tumaini peace talks failed to start on 9 February as scheduled in Nairobi, citing an upcoming regional summit focused on the conflict-hit country.
Dr. Mohammed Ali Guyo, the deputy chief mediator of the Tumaini Initiative, said the delay was due to a joint summit of the African Union C5 and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), set for February 15 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where South Sudan will be a key agenda item.
The proposed talks, dubbed the “Tumaini Initiative,” aim to produce a “National Consensus Charter for Peace and Democracy” within four weeks. The initiative acknowledges “persistent challenges and outstanding implementation gaps” in the 2018 peace deal, formally known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).
It seeks to shift negotiations toward “problem-solving rather than articulating fixed positions,” with discussions guided by a draft charter drawing on existing agreements and South Sudan’s constitution.
Kenyan President William Ruto is expected to serve as the “Principal Facilitator,” working closely with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir to ensure “sovereign ownership, national legitimacy, and effective political anchoring” of the process.
In an exclusive interview with Radio Tamazuj on Monday, Ambassador Guyo said the upcoming summit would place the Tumaini Initiative under a regional IGAD framework, with mediators receiving further guidance from leaders attending the meeting.
“So the new date for the dialogue will be clear after that, after the Sunday meeting,” he said. “It is an IGAD AU C5 submit in Addis Ababa and the agenda is to discuss South Sudan. That is why most of our key people will participate in that submit,” he added.
Guyo said the summit would help chart the way forward, noting that mediators have proposed a new methodology that treats all participants as stakeholders in a solution-oriented process.
“We want to move away from position oriented negotiations. This time it will be solution oriented negotiations, so that is the different between the two,” he said.
Responses to the document
Asked about responses to the draft framework circulated to the South Sudan government, opposition groups and civil society, Guyo said feedback had been positive.
On opposition leader Gen. Thomas Cirillo, Guyo said: “We had a discussion with him virtually and he had some clarifications, questions and we responded, and It is also positive on his side.”
When asked whether Gen. Cirillo’s holdout group would join the Tumaini talks, Guyo said all parties would be invited to ensure inclusivity. “He will be invited and everyone will be invited for inclusivity, so nobody will be left behind.”
Addressing conditions set by the main opposition SPLM-IO, which has demanded the release of its leader Dr. Riek Machar before joining the Tumaini talks, Guyo described the demand as reasonable.
“From the mediators’ point of view, this is actually a good demand. And therefore, it will be one of the issues that the mediators will be engaged with. You know we responded to them and we said this is definitely an issue they have raised and we will look at it and we will advise our principals on the war forward,” he said.
Guyo said the government in Juba had yet to formally submit its position but was expected to engage the mediators.
When asked about concerns over short timeframe of four weeks which is seen not enough, Guy said: “You see, if people congregate around solution and not position, it becomes easier for one to even resolve some of these issues within two weeks, three weeks, maximum four weeks.”
He added that mediators were urging leaders to prioritize political commitment.
Guyo said anchoring the Tumaini peace process within a regional framework would strengthen the initiative. “Now we are giving this priority for the summit and at the end of the day Tumaini will be anchored within the regional framework and that will happen during that summit,” he said.
“So it’s going to be an enrichment or rather into the process. So we will lose nothing at all. It is going to be mobilization for Tumaini, it is mobilization of political and diplomatic support for the process,” he concluded.
Background
The Tumaini Initiative was launched in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi in December 2023 at the request of President Kiir and with Kenya’s support. It aimed to reinvigorate South Sudan’s stalled peace efforts by involving newly formed opposition movements, including the United People’s Alliance.
However, Juba claimed in July last year that the initiative had legitimized rebellion and undermined a functioning peace framework.
The Tumaini talks were adjourned for the third time on February 7, 2025, without any concrete resolutions. Initially hailed as a bold intervention by President Ruto to revive a faltering peace process following frustrations with the Italy-based Sant’Egidio talks, the Tumaini Initiative now appears to have collapsed under the strain of mutual suspicion and political infighting.
South Sudan is witnessing escalating fighting between government forces (SSPDF) and SPLA-IO fighters loyal to detained First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar in northern Jonglei state and other parts of the country.
International and regional peace monitors have warned of a return to full-scale war amid a weakening peace deal signed in 2018 to end the 2013–2018 civil war.