President Salva Kiir said today that he plans to breach the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and launch attacks into rebel-held areas if his forces come under attack again by rebels, in order to prevent more rebel violations and to weaken their negotiating position.
Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar recommitted to the ceasefire deal last month, but sporadic clashes have continued. Ceasefire monitors say both sides have committed violations, but the two sides have not waged full-scale war since the previous dry season of 2014.
In remarks today, however, the president predicted a military triumph for his forces that would force Machar to end his rebellion and would preclude the need for a power-sharing agreement between the current government and Machar’s SPLM-IO.
“He will come on his own, like he did in 2002,” said Kiir.
He was speaking as the guest of honor at a youth convention in Juba organized by the Ministry of Youth and Sport.
Kiir went on to describe the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement as an obstacle to his victory, saying that it has “tied my hands,” preventing him from crushing the rebellion.
Recalling a recent conversation with IGAD peace mediators he said, “I told the IGAD leaders also that you have tied my hands, you tied my hands… I respect the agreement which was signed by the leaders of the region – I respected them – but Riek and his forces are still now attacking us and when we report to them [i.e., to IGAD] they don’t talk, they are quiet.”
“In my last talk with the IGAD leaders I told them that enough is enough.”
‘We will not stop’
“I have been respecting you all this time and this time should Riek Machar come to attack my forces again, I will strike them and pursue them into their areas. And we will not stop. If sanctions will be imposed on South Sudan simply because we are fighting for our self-defense, we will do it [anyway],” said Salva Kiir.
The president then related a conversation that he had had with Taban Deng, a top rebel official and the rebels’ chief negotiator. Kiir claimed that Taban had told him, “We are fighting you in spite of the ceasefire because it is one type of pressure – pressure on you. We want you to sign a peace agreement with us very quickly, so we are keeping you in so that you accept to sign the agreement.”
Kiir said he responded to Taban Deng saying, “You are using the wrong tactic. And you know me – we were fighting with you together. Whenever did I succumb to such pressure when we were fighting the Sudan government? So how do you think I will succumb to you?”
He did not say when this conversation took place.
Manyo offensive
The president already reportedly ordered SPLA soldiers ‘out of their trenches’ earlier this month, urging them to be more proactive in defense and in launching counter-attacks.
SPLA forces loyal to him attacked and overran parts of rebel-controlled Manyo County soon afterwards, saying they were acting in self-defense because rebels had used the area as an artillery base from which to launch attacks on nearby Renk town, across the river.
Kiir has spoken of a possible return to war in both of his two most recent public speeches, including at the event today and during his speech at John Garang Mausoleum last week.
In previous remarks in late January, Kiir has said that he does not want to wait until the end of the dry season to launch an offensive, for fear that the rebels will take the initiative during the coming wet season. Kiir’s forces have superiority in terms of mobility and armored vehicles – advantages that are best used when road conditions are still good.
Related:
Document: Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities