Professor Jok Madut Jok, a prominent South Sudanese political analyst and professor of anthropology at Syracuse University in the United States, has warned that South Sudan is teetering on the edge of a return to civil war as the 2018 peace agreement unravels.
In an interview with Radio Tamazuj, Prof. Jok, who previously worked for an independent research organization in Juba, expressed deep concern over the escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. He said the opposition SPLM/A-IO, led by Dr. Machar, now faces a critical choice: to accept the current political reality or return to armed conflict.
“The peace agreement is collapsing,” Prof. Jok said. “The SPLA-IO must decide whether to swallow their pride or go back to the bush to fight. This is a detrimental decision for the country.”
He highlighted the precarious position of Dr. Machar, who he said is effectively under house arrest, with his political and military leadership in disarray. “Some of his commanders are in hiding, while others are in the bush. The SPLM-IG [the ruling party] has taken over government positions allocated to other parties. For example, the governorship of Jonglei has been seized, and Western Equatoria remains unresolved. One minister is even in jail. This suggests President Kiir is no longer committed to upholding the peace agreement.”
Prof. Jok warned that if the current trajectory continues, the agreement will collapse entirely. “The SPLM-IG will consolidate power, exclude others, and the agreement will no longer hold. The opposition will then have to choose between submission or rebellion. The future of the peace deal hangs in the balance.”
Communal Conflicts
Prof. Jok also drew attention to the surge in deadly communal conflicts across the country, which he believes are linked to political power struggles in Juba. “Conflicts are increasing and becoming more lethal. For instance, tensions between the Nuer in Unity State and the Jieng (Dinka) in Warrap are escalating. Similarly, there are contentious relations between Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria. South Sudan is surrounded by conflict, and peace remains elusive for ordinary citizens.”
He emphasized that the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) is failing to address the root causes of violence. “The agreement may have silenced the guns between the SPLA-IO and the SSPDF, but it has not brought peace to everyday lives. People are still dying in communal conflicts, which are often tied to the power struggles in Juba.”
Economic Crisis
Prof. Jok painted a grim picture of South Sudan’s economic and humanitarian situation. “The country is suffering from failed harvests, collapsed markets, and disrupted trade due to the war in Sudan. If South Sudan returns to full-scale war, it will be a disaster. The political leaders are focused on holding onto power, with little regard for the fate of the country or its citizens.”
He also criticized the government’s decision to deploy Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) in the conflict, calling it “an insult to South Sudanese.” “The UPDF’s presence is seen as serving the interests of those in power, not the majority. If they are deployed against the White Army, it will only deepen the conflict and alienate communities further.”
Unpaid Soldiers
The South Sudanese intellectual raised concerns about the government’s decision to pay foreign troops while failing to pay its own soldiers for over a year. “This has caused resentment within the national army. If you pay your own soldiers, you wouldn’t need foreign forces. Neglecting the national army in favor of foreign troops undermines the country’s unity and sovereignty.”
A Call for Accountability
Prof. Jok urged South Sudanese to unite and hold their leaders accountable. “What happens in Upper Nile affects all of us. We must speak with one voice against injustice and pressure the government to respect human rights. Without popular action, the government will continue to act with impunity, as it has for the past decade.”
He warned that the international community may soon disengage from South Sudan if the government consolidates power undemocratically. “If the SPLM-IG becomes dictatorial, the public will be too fearful to protest, and the international community will abandon the country. Elections are far off, but what we need now is a focus on the survival of the nation and the establishment of transitional leadership.”
Prof. Jok concluded with a stark warning: “South Sudan is at a crossroads. The choices made in the coming weeks and months will determine whether the country descends into further chaos or finds a path to lasting peace.”