The signing of a peace deal in late August by President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar brought hopes of peace in South Sudan but sporadic fighting has persisted in the aftermath of the deal in some places, including in areas previously unaffected.
This report provides an overview of the general situation since the signing of the peace deal.
Unity State
Numerous clashes broke out in late August and early September in the Greater Upper Nile, including in the days immediately following the ceasefire going into effect. Government forces attacked villages in Mayendit, Koch, and Leer counties of southern Unity state. A fleet of heavily armed SPLA barges sent north to Malakal attacked Adok port in Leer county, and may have been fired on by rebels along the river.
Some of these barges were attacked and sunk by Johnson Olony’s forces near Tonga in Upper Nile state days later, resulting in capture of many SPLA prisoners of war. Government forces further carried out helicopter gunship attacks on the west bank across from Malakal.
The initial fighting in southern Unity after Kiir signed the peace deal was largely a continuation of government campaigns in that region throughout July and August. For much of September, however, fighting slowed down in Unity state though it did not completely stop. Rebels launched an attack in Guit county, while government troops stationed in Leer and Koch towns continued to send out small raiding parties in search of food in rebel-held parts of the county, at times killing civilians.
Tensions related to these smaller-scale incidents boiled over to what appeared to be coordinated rebel assaults on both the Koch and Leer county headquarters in early October. The attacks were bloody but short-lived. Government reinforcements from Bentiu quickly ousted the rebels from Koch and Leer, and then proceeded to launch reprisals through other parts of the counties. In Koch, the government stole relief food delivered the week before. In the case of Leer, some 80 civilians were killed in these reprisals, most of them children, while government looted aid agencies.
Government troops again launched attacks through Leer county on 24 October, killing dozens more civilians. By late November, the situation in southern Unity state calmed down allowing aid groups to tentatively return and the United Nations peacekeeping mission to set up a temporary base in Leer County. But skirmishes continue to take place in the state including a large cattle raid by rebels on Nhialdiu in Rubkona county.
Upper Nile
In Upper Nile state, there is high tension along the Nile river which divides the ethnic Shilluk (Collo) militia of Johnson Olony on the west bank from the government on the east side. Kiir’s 28 states order has exacerbated mistrust between the two sides because the proposed boundaries cut off the Collo from Malakal, an area they consider to belong to them. Soon after the issuance of the 28-states order in October, a group of Collo SPLA forces in Wadakona defected after clashing with their SPLA peers.
Small skirmishes occasionally take place in other areas of Upper Nile where rebel and government troops are in close proximity, such as Tonga near the border with Pariang county of Unity state, Lelo which is a government-controlled area on the west bank, and in Maban county along the border with Sudan where opposition forces have rear bases.
Western Equatoria
The situation in Western Equatoria state has deteriorated significantly since the signing of the peace deal, which coincided with the removal of elected governor Joseph Bangasi Bakosoro in late August and his replacement by longtime SPLA general Raphael Patrick Zamoi. Both men are from the Zande ethnic group.
Since early September, Western Equatoria has seen clashes between local armed groups and SPLA units in Mundri, Maridi, Yambio, Ezo, and Tambura counties. Dozens or more have been killed in these clashes, while tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced, including to neighboring states and countries.
These clashes are related to longstanding mistrust between locals and certain SPLA units known as “commando” and populated by young Dinka soldiers. The commando units are said to operate outside the normal Division 6 chain of command. The ‘commandos’ are accused of killing and beating civilians, looting property, and arbitrarily detaining and arresting people. A half dozen or more armed groups have coalesced in Western Equatoria and these groups are involved in clashes across the state with SPLA.
The armed groups in Western Equatoria are myriad and not unified. Some have carried out organized attacks on military bases, as in Mundri, while others have done little more then loot weapons and food. Some of the groups have declared their loyalty to the SPLM-IO while others have signed tenuous local peace pacts with the government. However, none of these groups have much interest fighting each other as they largely share grievances against the army and government.
Western Equatoria has also seen more violent crime including numerous road ambushes amid a worsening economy.
Central and Eastern Equatoria
Central and Eastern Equatoria states have also seen violence since the signing of the peace deal. In Central Equatoria, roads have become unsafe due to violent banditry. The national capital Juba has also experienced a rise in crime, particularly between late August and early November.
The most serious violence in Central Equatoria has been in Wonduruba Payam. After clashes between local armed groups and SPLA, the army allegedly terrorized civilians by killing, burning homes, and looting, displacing most of the population. However, army officers in the area later agreed to discipline perpetrators of these abuses under the terms of a church-brokered reconciliation deal with the local community.
In Eastern Equatoria, a new armed group calling itself the South Sudan Armed Forces has overrun several outposts in rural Torit County.
Western Bahr el Ghazal
Following a similar pattern as the Equatorias, new violence has broken out in Western Bahr el Ghazal. In the last month, SPLA soldiers in Wau town were accused of shootings, beatings, and arbitrary detentions of civilians, aggravating relations with the local communities. Clashes broke out outside Wau town earlier this month between SPLA and rebels suspected to be recruited and organized locally among the Fertit groups residing outside of Wau.