For those trying to follow the South Sudanese peace talks, 17 August was a difficult day. Contradictory headlines like “Kiir, Machar sign peace deal” and “Kiir did not sign peace agreement” appeared at the same time.

Why the confusion? And what really happened? Radio Tamazuj poses six questions about yesterday's summit in Addis Ababa and attempts to provide some answers.

Did they reach a peace agreement on South Sudan?

No. One of the diplomats at the summit rightly concluded there was “nothing to celebrate.” The key player, South Sudan's president, commander of the SPLA and chairman of the ruling party SPLM, Salva Kiir, did not sign. So there is no agreement.

Somewhat confusingly, however, the secretary-general of Kiir's own party, Pagan Amum, signed the deal. But he did so on behalf of another faction to which he belonged, the so-called SPLM 'Former Detainees', and not as a representative of the government. Pagan Amum and some of the Former Detainees recently returned to Juba and rejoined the ruling party, but earlier they had participated in the peace talks as a third party – a role they continued to play yesterday.

The former vice president and leader of the SPLA-in-Opposition, Riek Machar, also signed the deal, leaving Kiir alone in opposing the document, which was also endorsed by the mediators of the East African regional bloc IGAD.

What created all the confusion about whether there was a deal or not?

We, the media. Journalists want to believe their eyes. IGAD representatives informed reporters that the parties would sign a peace agreement and soon thereafter Salva Kiir and his opponent Riek Machar entered the main conference room in Addis Ababa, shaking hands. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta appeared smiling with a paper in front of him. President Kiir appeared seated with an official paper in front of him for signing. Some journalists rushed to file their stories before confirming what exactly was signed and by whom.

In reality, IGAD knew that Kiir was not going to sign but they did not want to announce that the parties had failed to reach an agreement and the talks had failed. Diplomats of the East African organization had already announced that they would achieve a breakthrough at the summit and that they would not extend the deadline.

They proceeded with a signing ceremony involving only one of the warring parties. Chief Mediator Seyoum Mesfin called it “a great day in the forward movement of the peace process in South Sudan." The media were basically fooled by the spin.

Did Kiir commit to anything?

He signed nothing and most probably he did not make any formal commitment to do so even after the 15 day period for 'consultations' that he requested from the mediators. Uhuru Kenyatta claimed that Kiir “initialed” the agreement, seeing this as a first step toward signing. But there are no guarantees that he will ever sign the deal.

Why didn't he sign?

The South Sudanese government has not yet fully explained this, but some observers have already pointed out that elements of Kiir's government strongly opposed key elements of the IGAD peace proposal, and Kiir himself had expressed reservations about the proposal.

Prominent opponents of the proposal within the government include the Jieng Council of Elders, SPLA Chief of Staff Paul Malong, Information Minister Michael Makuei and state officials in the Bahr al Ghazal region who organized protests against the deal in the week before the summit.

However, some members of the cabinet may support the peace proposal, and possibly also some of the state governors, including some of those who were ousted by presidential decree during the summit. Kiir's failure to sign the deal thus leaves his government divided even as it comes under increasing domestic and international pressure over the continuing war.

What was the role of the IGAD heads of state?

The leadership of IGAD includes the Kenyan, Sudanese, and Ugandan presidents, and the Ethiopian prime minister, among others. The success of the summit was in their hands.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni played a key role in convincing Kiir to show up for the IGAD summit and he has the most influence over Kiir because of his military support for the South Sudanese government. But Museveni could not or would not convince Kiir to sign the deal, and he headed back to Entebbe before the summit even concluded. Omar al Bashir from Sudan likewise left for home before any summit outcomes were announced.

The Kenyan president, Uhuru Kenyatta, who overtly supports neither party and hence is more neutral, played a seemingly more active and central role, but was unsuccessful in reconciling the positions of the two warring parties.

What is next for Salva Kiir after refusing to sign the IGAD proposal?

It will be a challenging time back home. Although the main rebel group SPLA-IO has lately had few military successes, the president faces other formidable political and governance challenges.

During the summit itself, Kiir decreed the removal of two elected governors of Western Equatoria and Central Equatoria. He now faces a potential rebellion in these states. The ousted governors are now both under heavy guard. Reacting to his dismissal, the long-time governor of Central Equatoria Clement Wani used almost the same words as Machar did after his dismissal as vice president back in 2013: “I accept the president's decision and will support my successor.”

Another battle for Kiir is how to control public opinion. In remarks before leaving to the IGAD summit, Kiir threatened to kill journalists who report critically about his administration. Whether media workers heed such threats or not, the population at large have few illusions about the state of the nation. The soaring South Sudanese pound is at an all-time low, now costing more than 14.5 SSP to the dollar, making salaries – if paid – increasingly inadequate.

Kiir now puts his fate largely in the hands of the army leader, Paul Malong, who believes in a military victory. The appointment on Sunday of one of Malong's political associates to the governorship of Northern Bahr al Ghazal points to his ascendant influence in Kiir's inner circle.

Finally, Kiir now faces growing international political isolation. Countries in the region that were previously supportive or neutral – Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia, for example – may be less sympathetic given the government's rejection of their peace proposal. Yesterday South Sudanese officials were sensitive to the fact that Ethiopian authorities allegedly delayed Kiir's departure from Bole Airport after Uganda's Yoweri Museveni left without incident.

Several countries have threatened sanctions against South Sudanese leaders such as an arms embargo and travel bans should the government refuse to sign a peace deal. Worse still for Kiir personally, he might be investigated for war crimes, given building international support for a hybrid court of justice and growing impatience with his government within the IGAD region and beyond.

Photo Credit: President Salva Kiir during the signing ceremony, Kenyatta, 17 August 2015 (Kenyan Presidency)