BY JOSEPH MADAK BOTH, PhD.
2024 – 2025: The extension for another two years of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan 2018 -R-ACRSS, signifies an important political development that has occurred after six years of a transitional government by the rival SPLM/A leaders. Also, the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing Kenyan-led Peace Talks (Tumaini Initiative) between the R-ACRSS government and the hold-out opposition parties, remains a pivotal opportunity and development for restoring hope for sustainable peace in South Sudan. Tumaini Initiative was launched in May 2024 and relaunched in December 2014 without progress for it to resume after unsuccessful talks concluded in mid-December 2024 for it to resumes by mid-January 2025. Many argue and wonder whether the new extension by the R-ACRSS/government parties and the Tumaini Initiative peace talks will resolve over a decade of socio-economic and political challenges facing the young nation, considering existing rampant insecurity, weak institutions, corruption, poverty, inter-communal violence, and deep-rooted mistrust and lack of confidence among the top leaders. How about the possibilities for the conduct of elections to transition South Sudan to a people-elected government, through a free, fair, transparent, and credible election at the end of the newly agreed third extension of the R-ACRSS government?
2015 -2024: The parties to the violent political power struggle concluded and failed to implement a signed peace deal between the rivals SPLM/A and SPLM/A-IO in 2015 and 2018 respectively after the devastating armed fighting in December 2013. The senseless violent conflict caused the massive loss of over 20,000 lives from the Nuer ethnic group in particular and many other South Sudanese, and over two million internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees in the neighboring countries. The reports from regional and international human rights observers and organizations – The African Union Commission of Inquiry Report (The Obasanjo Report in 2014). UNMSS, Human Rights Watch and Sentry Project, Washington D.C., and United States Institute for Peace (USIP). How will both the President and his long-time rival First Vice President fix their deep-rooted mistrust to give hope for the current extension to work after the failure of the previous extensions since the 2016 revitalized peace agreement, and so the Tumaini Initiative Agreement, if at all signed?
2016-2018: In July 2016, the fragile peace agreement collapsed before its implementation, resulting in armed conflicts between the two main protagonists -Kiir and Mchar groups, consequently, devastating inter-communal violence ensued causing hunger and internal displacement for the second time. The UN imposed an arms embargo and sanctions on perpetrators of the political violence against innocent civilians in areas of Unity State, particularly in Ler County and Koch.
2013 – 2015: The ruling Party SPLM organizational meeting turned violent plunging the young nation into a bloodbath just 2 years after its Independence from Sudan following on July 9, 2011, after a historic referendum for self-determination on January 9th, 2011. The December 2013 violence continued for 2 years before the regional and international community intervened to end the disastrous conflict. Sadly, by March of 2014, one million South Sudanese had been displaced from their homes, including 800,000 who are currently in several displaced camps across the country (Juba, Bor, Malakal, Bentiu, Wau). Surprisingly, the parties resumed conflict less than 3 months before the deal could get off the ground in July 2016. UN agencies reported that hundreds and thousands of innocent people died and thousands of people took refuge in the United Nations-established Internally Displaced Persons Camps until today. The victims of the violent conflict and killings were from the Nuer ethnicity/tribe who had been accused of supporting former Vice President Riek Machar (the rebel leader of the SPLM-IO opposed to President Kiir and his Dinka loyalists). What policy approaches/strategies and mechanisms can address the unimaginable psychological traumatic consequences created by the power struggle, and how can trust and confidence be restored amongst the two major ethnic groups in South Sudan – the Dinka and the Nuer?
2011 -2013: With further exacerbated violence of a similar scale as the previous two years of violent conflict of December 2013. Six years into the post-conflict establishment, South Sudan still grapples with deep-seated consequences of lethal warlord politics. The increasing inability or rather reluctance of R-TGoNU to address these cumulative consequences, even with a monopoly of power and luxury of time, has left the citizens downcast in their acute predicament. Government institutions that were supposed to be reorganized, restructured, and reconstituted to meet those challenges posed by post-settlement ramifications now risk systemic malfeasance and outright dysfunctionality. Though R-ARCSS presented itself as a promising agreement, at least in its preamble assurance, its elite-centric modicum of operation has now betrayed those promises and left the document far off the beaten track. As R-TGoNU now faces the stark reality of the deadline, it is apparent that with a remaining little period, conducting free, fair, and democratic elections in December, 22nd 2024, seems very unlikely. For political factions held together by conditionality rather than the will, it would be judicious enough to observe that the link between the past and now points to the fact that another era of morass is in the offing.
2005 -2011: On January 9th, 2005, after nearly 22 years of persistent civil war between the successive regimes in Sudan of Jafaar Nimiri, Gen. Swar-El-Dhab, and Gen. Omar Hassan El-Bashir, four-year negotiations under the auspices of IGAD backed by AU, UN and TROIKA countries concluded a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Nairobi, Kenya – known as Naivasha Agreement. The protocol of the CPA included a 6-year transitional period after which the Sudanese would be allowed to exercise their rights of self-determination to either affirm unity or session. In April of 2010, President Kiir was elected in a kind of deal kind between the CPA signatories (President Bashir representing the ruling NCP in Sudan, and President Kiir representing the SPLM/A ruling party in the South Sudan government), which was exactly 5 years after the shocking demise of the South Sudanese leader Dr. John Garang de’ Mabior in a helicopter crash at New Site on June 30th, 2005. However, after 6 years of historic referendum, the South Sudanese voted an overwhelming majority of 98% to separate from Sudan at home and abroad. Sudan President Omar El-Bashir was the first to recognize South Sudan’s independence to become the 54th country in Africa and the 193rd country to join the United Nations. During 2005 and 2011, South Sudan was not free from violence across the country despite the relative peace brought about by the CPA and the Independence in July 2011.
1983 -2005: The second Sudanese civil war break-up between the successive governments of the Sudan (Islamic fundamentalist clique regimes), and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Army -SPLM/A (South Sudanese Movement). It’s a continuation of the First Civil War of 1955-1972 for the Liberation of South Sudan. The civil war which was started by South Sudanese, but later engulfed most parts of Sudan, particularly the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile was a result of a popular uprising against decades of oppression, injustice and religious discrimination from successive Islamic-Arab-led governments in Northern Sudan in 1983. The Southern Sudanese Movement and War of Liberation becomes one of the longest civil wars in Africa for it has lasted for over 22 years. The historical context of the second war dates back to the failure of the regime of Jafaar Mohamed Nimiri, former president of Sudan since his coup against Gen. Ibrahim Abuod on May, 25th, 1969. Nimiri abrogated and dishonored the self-rule Accord of 1972 between his regime and the then Southern Sudan Liberation Front led by Gen. Joseph Lagu, resulting in general dissent, mutiny, and uprising in 1983. In Bentiu in 1982 when the oil was discovered the government applied discriminatory policies favoring its northern-Muslims Sudanese against the black-Christian Sudanese, especially on employment and compensations on land use where oil has been discovered by the oil operating companies. The malpractices and inequality caused sharp reactions from the local populations in the oil areas (Leek, Bul, Jikany, Jagei, Dinka Padang of Parieng). Other causes of the Khartoum regime of Nimiri failure include the introduction of Islamic-Sharia Laws (amputations of arms and limps) in 1983, targeting mostly the Christians- Southern Sudanese and the regime opponents from the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. The self-serving interests of the regime in digging of Jonglei Canal at the request of the Egyptian Government without any consultations on its negative impacts on the inhabitants of the region and the entire Southern Sudan. More so, interferences of the Khartoum regime into the self-governance affairs of the Southern region, for example, removing and appointment of leaders without respect to the accord. Consequently, the accord of 1972 brought relative peace in the first 5 years with low-key development activities but the Northern Sudanese negative politics of subjugation of the Southern Sudanese through Islamization, racial prejudices, power, and wealth-sharing imbalances gave birth to the 1983 revolutionary movement by Southern Sudanese leaders such as Dr. John Garang, Gai Tut, Kot Atem, Kiir Mayardiit, Riek Machar, Paulino Matip Nhial, William Nyoun, Joseph Odhuo, and many others who responded to the revolutionary call from all over Southern Sudan (Bentiu, Torit, Malakal, Wau, and Bor).
1983 – 2002:.The Southern Sudan Liberation Movement from 1983- 1991 was one of the strongest and most vibrant liberation movements in Africa fighting for democratic ideals of freedom, justice, and equality, only to be equated to South Africa’s apartheid movement against the white regime in Pretoria, South Africa. Tragically, SPLM/A suffered organizational issues causing a bloody split into the SPLM/A-Torit Faction under the Chairman and the commander in chief of late Dr. John Garangde’ Mabior, and Nasir Declaration in August 199 which later became the SSIM/A under Chairmanship and Commander in Chief of Dr. Riek Machar Ten. The split was the most tragic setback to the SPLM/A with its associated consequences of mass mutiny, the killing of prominent figures and senior offices on both sides, and innocent civilians along tribal lines. The catastrophic split of the movement derailed the movement’s focus due to the loss of morale amongst the fighters, and strategic alliance support, because the war became unmanageable at all frontiers against the enemy. The issues behind the 1991 split of the SPLM/A amongst the top leadership include tribal sentiments/favoritism, court-marshalling on unfounded allegations of betrayal, and attempts to oust the leadership of the movement instigated by rumor-mongers, upsurge of human rights violations/abuses of grave concerns, lack of clarity on whether the movement goal is to liberate Southern Sudan from the Arabs north of Sudan or is it a liberation for a regime change for a united and democratic Sudan. So, Those who joined Machar and fought vigorously against Garang’s attempts to thwart their defection include Commander Dr. Lam Akol, Joseph Odhuo, Arok Thon Arok, Kerbino Kwain Bol, Paulino Matip, Gen. Kuany Latjor (the founder of Bilpam since Anya-Anya – 1 Movement). The break-away SSIM/A and SPLM/A mainstream largely caused huge damage in terms of lives lost and irreparable mistrust amongst the top leaders of the Dinka and the Nuer before the two factions were persuaded by friends of South Sudan in the region and beyond in 2002, however, mistrust and lack of confidence remained a challenge even after obtaining the Independence of South Sudan following the CPA in January 2005.
1972 – 1983: The First War of Anya-Nya -1 movement brought about a self-rule accord that lasted for 17 years where the Southern region supposedly governed its affairs, but the socialist regime of Jafaar Nimiri, which later turned Islamic abrogated the Addis Ababa Agreement, following the northern leaders such as Dr. Hassan Al-Turabi wrongly advised the President to shift gears from socialism to Arab wave of Arabization and Islamic fundamentalist movement in late 1970s when Nimiri decided to introduce the Sharia law or El-Hudud, popularly known as Islamic laws in which non-Muslims and opponents of the regime were falsely accused and sentenced to arm amputations and arbitrary arrests, torture and disappearances. The shift of Nimiri’s dictatorial socialist May regime towards Islamization resulted in Southern Sudanese discontent with the regime for violations of freedoms of religion, and the SPLM/A were formed by several Southern movements in 1983, namely, the Southern Sudan Independence Movement (SSIM/A) and Southern Front/A. The movement’s leadership formation was not an easy one, because each group had their leaders wishing to top the command of the movement. Sadly, a division ensued causing a bloodbath between the Southerners, and that finally led to Late. Dr. John Garang forcefully asserted his control over the others and became the Chairman and commander-in-chief of the SPLM/A. The leadership and unification of the movements created irreparable damage to trust and confidence among the Southern Sudanese ethnic groups and leaders because in that incident some key and prominent leaders were killed or assassinated. The late Gai Tut from Lou Nuer was killed by the group loyal to Dr. Garang, and also late. Akot Atem was also killed in the same leadership race of the movement for the independence of South Sudan from the successive regimes in Khartoum under the regime of Jafaar Mohamed Nimiri, who ousted Gen. Ibrahim Aboud in a coup in May 1969.
1956 – 1972: Understandably, as a result of manipulative practices of northern Sudanese and their Egyptian conspirators to Arabize and Islamize the Southern Sudanese, independence of Sudan was pre-arranged with South Sudanese uneducated chiefs and their cronies where a conference was held in Juba and through bribes and promises for the position, those Southerners were forced to accept unification with the north, hence an independent of Sudan was recommended on October 1955 to take effect on January 1, 1956, to the British colonial regime, just a few months before the independence, the first civil war broke out, with the Sudanese government representing the north and a unified separatist movement pushing to make the South Sudan an independent State. The conflict lasted for 17 years until an agreement was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, brokered by Christian coalitions in 1972 which led to the creation of the Southern Sudan Autonomous Region (SSAR).
1947- 1956: The round-table conference held in Juba in 1947 was the beginning of some sort of direct political engagement between the Southern elites and the northern elites on the colonial separate ruling of South Sudan and the north. Following that conference resolutions by an advisory council resolved to more fully integrate governance of Southern provinces with the north annulling the British closed district administration of the Southern Sudan from the north. Five years later, the Egyptian Revolution removed British influence over the country, because of the previous agreement between both countries, which also led to Sudan gaining independence from both Britain and Egypt. This agreement was reached in October 1954 and took effect on the declaration of Sudan’s independence on January 1, 1956.
1805-1899: Historically, the area comprising present-day Sudan and South Sudan was subject to conquest and colonization for millennia. In the early 16th century, the Ottoman Empire and Funj Sultanate conquered much of the former Nubian Empire, and historians point to the reign of Mohammed Ali Pasha of Egypt as a key turning point in the Sudanese slave trade. For example in the Middle East, in Iraq, the Nubians who were taken as slaves are now founded in Basra province in the South of Iraq, the same in Saudia Arabia and Yemen. Geographical boundaries, including the White Nile and the Blue Nile, were all black Africans from Southern Sudan, Dinka (Abeyi & Aweil), and the Nuer of the Western Upper Nile dubbed as the British colonized Western Nuer District in late. 1896 until the Sudan Independence. Historically, the Western Nuer district is considered the original ancestral land of the Nuer before they expand to the East of the River Nile (now known as Eastern Nuer or the Jikany Nuer). The slave trade covered the Nuba Mountain of Southern Kordofan and Darfur. We are reminded that the Arabs migrated from the Middle East through the Red Sea and settled in Northern Sudan and other parts of North Africa, today, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria. These migrant Arab Sudanese collaborated with Anglo-Egyptian slave traders to raid Black Africans from the Southern Sudan, Nuba, and Darfur regions, and other Black Africans for their slave trade to the Far East, Europe, and the Americas’. In the 19th century following the rise against the slave trade and colonialism, the slave trade was pronounced abolished by the British and other European colonies, yet, the practice of the slave trade continued until the early 20th century in most parts of Nuba Mountain and Abyei in Southern parts of the Sudan. The slave trade and Islamization propagation across Africa, especially in the Horn of Africa perpetuated under development during the Anglo-Egyptian rule and continued to be the cause of decades of civil wars, mistrust, and political discord between the Christian black Africans and their Northern Arab-Muslims in Sudan and other African countries, even after the independence from the British and other imperialists rule, for example, in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia.
In summary, historical perspectives serve to help generations and leaders to learn, relearn, and unlearn to fix their past, and present challenges and confidently focus their energies on future aspirations to make their people and country proud nations. The unbearable suffering endured by the Southern Sudanese today and from the First War of Independence during the British, Anglo-Turkish Condominium regimes of slavery and slave trade remain justifiable reasons for leaders to forgive, humble and think responsibly and correct their decades of misrule, corruption, power struggle, and begin courageously with humility to accept themselves as brothers and sisters, and immediately take necessary actions to allow for a transition to a democratically elected government for better use of resources and ease the burden of socio-economic injustices faced by the impoverished citizens of South Sudan.
The writer would like to wish you all and your loved ones a Merry Christmas and Happy Peaceful and Prosperous New Year!
References
IGAD, Political Settlement and Peace Building in South Sudan: Lessons from the 2018 Peace Negotiation Processes – IGAD & AU Peace and Security, igad.
HLRF – Agreement of Cessation of Hostilities, Protection of Civilians and Humanitarian Access, 21st December 2017
United States Institute of Peace (USIP), Briefing and testimonies reports, 2014, 2015.
United Nations Mission for South Sudan (UNMSS), Security Council Report and the UN General Assembly reports, 2013 – 2024, www.unmss.org
Human Rights Watch reports since the outbreak of 2013 violent political crises (HRW report, South Sudan, Sudan, 2014& 2016)
National and International media houses (Al-Jazeera reports, UNMSS-Miraya FM News, Radio Tamazuj, VOA & Africa 54 news report, 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2024.)
African Union Human Rights Commission Report on 2013 (AU, 2014, 2015).
Revitalized Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (R-JMEC) reports on the status of peace agreement implementation or R-ACRSS- 2018. (South Sudan peace evaluation periodic reports, 2018, 2024).
IGAD, UNMSS, TROIKA, and African Union Peace and Security reports on the August 2015 peace agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan(ACRSS).
The Root Cause of Sudan’s Civil Wars, by Douglas Johson, Oxford/James Currey and Bloomington/Indiana University Press, 2003, 234.)
Divided by History by Peter Dixon, Roots of Sudanese Conflict (search Amazon to read),
Assignment Sudan by Robert Brightwell, spanning a series from 1800-1838.
Sudan’s Painful Road to Peace: A Full Story of the Founding and Development of the SPLM/S by Arop Madut (check it out from Amazon.com).
The First Sudanese Civil War 1947 -1972): Africans, Arabs & Israelis by Scopas S. Poggo, (amazon.com)
The Post-American World: and the rise of the rest Fareed Zacharia – (Penguin Books) 2011
The writer is a former Head of the Secretariat of the Government Performance Management System (GPMS), Office of the President. He held different senior capacities in the Government of South Sudan and the Sudan. He is an Independent Consultant in Public Administration and an Advocate for the transition to democratic governance in the Republic of South Sudan. He can be reached via josephwuol2014@gmail.com.