Professor Patrick Loch Otieno (PLO) Lumumba is a Kenyan academic, lawyer, activist, and renowned speaker on African issues. He is also the Founder of the PLO Lumumba Foundation and a consultant with Lumumba and Lumumba Advocates, a member of the Africa Justice Group (AJG). Apart from his academic roles, he has held positions such as the Director of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC) and Secretary of the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission.
In an exclusive interview with Radio Tamazuj, Prof. Lumumba says one of South Sudan’s major problems is impunity brought about by a system that has “sacred cows,” individuals who cannot be touched, because they have credentials of freedom fighting. He asserts that the country will succeed when the rule of law prevails and everyone is under the law.
According to the outspoken Pan-Africanist, peace initiatives organized outside the country can only go so far and he argues that sustainable peace can only be mediated by the combatants within South Sudan because they know what the problems are. He also advises that the recent extension of the government’s tenure must be the last one to avoid individuals using unconstitutional methods to take power.
Below are edited excerpts:
Q: What is your reading of the events in South Sudan in light of the transitional unity government extending its tenure in office again?
A: Let us first begin by saying that South Sudan has had its political problems like many other African countries after regaining independence and after a long war. There are certain fundamental things in my view that have yet to be concretized in South Sudan and these things have not allowed certain critical things to be undertaken.
Number one; the constitutional dispensation in South Sudan must be stabilized. In other words, it is necessary to have a constitution that is endorsed by a critical majority of South Sudanese. Number two; we know that the politicians have been engaged in different problems and that indeed is what gave birth to the transitional government of national unity. It was assumed that during this transition, certain things would happen. One is that there would be a new constitution and two that critical things such as census would be undertaken but you and I know that has not happened.
The net effect therefore is that the country is not ready to go into the next phase which is an election. For that reason, which is a very practical reason, and on the understanding that the two years will be used to do the things that have not been done, the country should now engage the overdrive gear and ensure that the fundamentals are implemented so that in two years there will be a credible election in South Sudan.
Q: Do you think that the extension will help in implementing some of those tasks you have mentioned?
A: I pray and hope that they will. One cannot predict what will happen because after two years somebody may say we extend again. Which would be unfortunate, but I believe that the politicians have to read the mood of South Sudan. The politicians must remember that the country cannot be in transition forever. And if they do that, then I hope that they will be this the last transition, because if it is not, then it will create an appetite in some individuals to do unconstitutional things which would be very sad and absurd at once.
Q: You once said that South Sudan leaders treat their country like a hunting ground to go and get money which they enjoy in neighboring countries. Has your perception changed about this?
A: In many ways, that has not changed. I would love to a South Sudan with a stable Juba, I would want to see a South Sudan where all the ten states are stable, a South Sudan that attracts investments, and a South Sudan that has working hospitals. I would want to see a South Sudan that has working institutions in all critical areas including education, health, agriculture, mining, and industrialization. If that were to happen, there is no shortage of South Sudanese outside of the country and I talked to many of them who love to go back home. I talked to South Sudanese in Kenya, Europe, and the U.S.A and in Australia who are doing very well outside of South Sudan and they are looking forward to the day when the environment, politically and economically, will allow them to invest back at home.
It is therefore incumbent upon the political class to create that environment so that people don’t see South Sudan as a place where they go and get money and once they have made money they invest in Kenya, Uganda, Dubai, and other places and undermine the long term stability of South Sudan.
Q: Professor, you often speak of the avaricious nature of African leaders and their lack of democratic credentials. How do you rate South Sudanese leaders, especially President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar?
A: These were freedom fighters and when you are dealing with freedom fighters sometimes it is not very easy to transition from a freedom fighter to a politician who understands or appreciates the dynamics of modern-day politics. In many African countries, and this is not only true of South Sudan, I see it in Zimbabwe, I see it to a limited extent in Namibia, and I see it in South Africa. Freedom fighters think that the country owes them. And for that reason, they don’t want to be questioned. They say where you were when we were suffering in the bush. It is very few of them who succeed in we did our bit and we can therefore hand over the baton to another generation.
One prays and hopes that President Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar and their other comrades in arms will see the wisdom of creating a new generation of South Sudanese who will not have the entitlement that the liberation fighters normally have because good and sound leadership not only demands but requires that we have a long term view of the country. That is why the Chinese are now conquering the world economically because the Chinese plan for one hundred years. They don’t plan for the next elections. The South Koreans are the same, the Vietnamese after the war, are the same, and the Japanese after the World War 2 are the same. Unfortunately, in many African countries, we think on a short-term basis and we are obsessed with elections and their outcomes without more.
Q: There is hardly any civic space and basic freedoms in South Sudan. What can be done to remove the country from this pathetic state?
A: The whole idea of civic engagement is an exercise that must be undertaken by the state itself. Any state that wants to have long-term political health must create an environment where the population is engaged in civic participation and that requires that they must responsibly be allowed to air their views, to contribute to governance. If that is not done, then what happens is you have a timid population. When a population is timid, then they cannot be guarantors of sustainable democracy. And I am using the word democracy to mean governance where people participate in deciding their leadership and if the leadership is not doing the right thing, they question that leadership. And if they question that leadership, that leadership has to do that which is in the general overall interest of the population. But remember in many instances, many governments, particularly in Africa, thrive on the ignorance of the population. So, the ignorance of the population becomes a very useful tool that is paradoxically used against the population.
So, that is one of the things that must happen in South Sudan, the people must be made to know that South Sudan is their country. Those who are leaders of your country are trustees of the resources of your country and they must ensure that those resources are managed and utilized for the benefit of the general good. Those benefits are that you have good infrastructure, good health services, and good education and that you have opportunities to invent and innovate. If that does not happen, then ultimately the country will suffer.
Q: Many observers have accused regional leaders of supporting President Kiir’s stay in power because they have turned South Sudan into a market for their produce, manufactured goods, and jobs for their nationals among others. What is your take on this?
A: I hope that is not true that the leaders and countries in the region are using South Sudan as a hunting ground. South Sudan is a member of the East African Community (EAC) and it is incumbent upon leaders in the EAC to ensure that all member states enjoy peace. A peaceful South Sudan is good for East Africa in the long run. And you and I know that outside of oil, South Sudan can be a bread basket. South Sudan has many minerals and a good measure of human resources.
So, if there are leaders who have a very short-term view of things and think that instability in South Sudan is in their best interest, they are deluding themselves. We must call them out and remind them that history has been consistent in demonstrating that if your neighbor’s house is on fire, yours is also likely to be on fire. It is therefore in your best interest that your neighbor’s home is safe and secure.
Q: We have seen many peace initiatives by the region to bring peace to South Sudan. Do you think the ongoing Tumaini Initiative between the government and the holdout groups mediated by Kenya will bear fruit?
A: Any initiative which is from outside of South Sudan can only go so far. Ultimately, I have always held the view, and I still hold that view, that sustainable peace can only be mediated by the combatants within South Sudan. Outsiders will come and they will attempt to midwife peace but the outsiders do not know the complexities within South Sudan. It is the South Sudanese themselves that know what the problems are. And if they were to make a solemn decision and say we have been in conflict for too long, we want to bequeath to the next generation a peaceful South Sudan, they would not even need processes such as Tumaini.
The president himself would summon an all-South Sudanese conference in Juba and tell them; brothers and sisters the time is now. Let us sit down and in honesty and truth, let us ask ourselves fundamental questions. Why did we fight? Have we achieved what we fought for? Is it in our best interest to allow our ambitions to stand in the way of South Sudan’s progress? Let us answer those questions in the knowledge that we who had the honor and privilege of fighting for the liberation of South Sudan, made our contribution, but that this fight is inter-generation. As you know, we have had peace processes, people have signed agreements, people have signed things in Addis Ababa, in Machakos, in different parts of the world, and when they go home, they fail.
So the outsider is not the one who is going to resolve the domestic problems of South Sudan. Those problems can only be resolved by South Sudanese and the politicians must ensure that they achieve that. The sooner they realize that, the quicker they will recognize that South Sudan can only be rescued by South Sudanese.
Q: Do you think the ongoing war in neighboring Sudan is going to affect South Sudan economically?
A: Without a doubt! If there is war in Sudan and you and I know that most of the oil from South Sudan is exported through Port Sudan, that will ultimately affect South Sudan. Indeed, there was a period not too long ago when the Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Himedti) group (Rapid Support Forces) said that they were going to disrupt the export of oil through Sudan. And that in itself must send a clear warning to South Sudan that in matters such as oil exportation, you cannot rely on one channel.
The sooner they begin to think about the exportation through the East African Community or Djibouti, the safer they are. It is also important that South Sudan begins to refine some of the oil so that you do not export the crude, you refine the oil and make sure that you have something for domestic consumption. However, without doubt, because we trade with our neighbors, and if our neighbors are in trouble, then what they generate are refugees. They don’t generate anything good. So, it is in the best interest of South Sudan that in fact, Sudan is at peace and that all the neighbors are at peace. And if they are, then economic progress is then realized in that way.
That is why the region has been very keen on ensuring that the disputes within the region are resolved. Not that they have done a good job, I don’t think Africa has done a good job, I think IGAD has not done a good job, I think the African Union has been in comatose and what we see, even in an attempt to resolve that conflict in Sudan, we see the Egyptians, the Emiratis, and the Americans were meeting in Jeddah and other places and Africans are just silent. And yet it is a problem that affects immediate neighbors such as Chad, of course, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and even Egypt and Libya.
Q: We have seen changes in ministerial positions in South Sudan, especially the Ministry of Finance, and yet there is runaway inflation and local currency keeps depreciating against the U.S. Dollar. What is your analysis of this?
A: History is consistent in revealing to us that what keeps a nation going are institutions. Once you have institutionalized processes, then human beings only come to ensure that those institutional prescriptions are implemented. To believe that there is an individual or a group of individuals who have the power of Moses in the Bible and will come and part economic Red Seas and cost economic pillars of fire to stand between us and poverty is completely misguided.
So, the question that we must ask is what are the critical things that we do in our financial sector? What kind of Central Bank are we running? What kind of treasury are we running? What kind of taxation regimes do we have? What kind of banking system do we have? Do we ensure that there are no leakages within our system? Once you have done that, even if you have a cabinet minister who is not very well schooled, they will preside over a system that they cannot disturb nor change easily. So, changing individuals in a game of musical chairs is not the solution. You cannot use aspirin to cure cancer. It requires clear intervention and the time is now to re-examine how the economy of South Sudan has been running since 2011 and to borrow from others if we must borrow.
There is a book written by a South Korean called Ha-Joon Chang called Bad Samaritans and he reminds his readership that countries such as South Korea and many countries thrived because they allowed systems which were given the oxygen of survival to their economic system. We can see; look at Singapore, look at Indonesia now, look at the South Korea that I have talked about, look at Vietnam, look at Mauritius. What it is that they are doing that is enabling them to thrive even amid these difficulties, is not to trust in individuals. That is not to say that sound leadership is not necessary, it is necessary, but individuals come and go, but institutions, once they have been properly drilled down, solve almost 90 percent of the problems.
Q: Are you implying South Sudan lacks institutions and systems are not in place?
A: I think there is a lot of work to be done. Remember also South Sudan is only 13 years old since she regained her independence. She will continue to make several mistakes and it is their duty when they make those mistakes, to be quick to resolve them. Also because they are living in an environment where we have had people make mistakes, we need not repeat the mistakes that have been made by others. We learn from success stories so that our journey to success is a little shorter. That is why I have named the countries that I have named because if South Sudan were to learn from them, then what it took those countries 50 years to achieve, South Sudan can achieve in 10 years.
Q: The justice system in South Sudan is lacklustre at best and people accused of embezzlement are often sacked but not prosecuted. What would you say about this?
A: The problem in South Sudan as in many African countries is impunity brought about by a system that has sacred cows, individuals who cannot be touched because they have credentials of freedom fighting. But countries succeed when impunity is given a death blow. When it is made known to every individual, however highly ranked, that if you do not obey the law, you will be punished under the law. Once you do that, you send a very clear message to everybody that impunity will not be allowed in the country and therefore, those who engage in theft, those who engage in embezzlement of public funds, will not do so because they know that if they do, they will not only lose their liberty, but they will also lose the ill-gotten wealth. Unfortunately, South Sudan like many African countries, entertains too many sacred cows.
Q: Professor, what robust solution would you prescribe to get the country out of this quagmire?
A: The most important thing is that the country must have political stability. In other words, there must be a political environment that enables all other sectors to thrive. This requires that we have sustainable peace and when we talk about sustainable peace, it is the kind of peace that will enable both those within South Sudan and outside South Sudan to know that this is a space where if I am an investor, I can come in and invest in the long term in the knowledge that nothing will interfere.
Once you create an enabling political environment, then everything begins to kick in economically. Tourists begin to come in, and those who are in the sector of tourism will now know that they can properly sell things. Those who are in different sectors of the economy and investment will know that they will be protected. Those who want to move goods within South Sudan will know that our goods can move. In other words, you become a magnate for things that will sustain the economy. And those who are outside of the economy will also convince the young that they will go to school and when they go to school, they will have the opportunity to get employment and to invent and innovate. History has been consistent in demonstrating that the very primary thing that you must do is to create a political environment that allows all these to happen.
Writing in 1983 in a little book The Trouble With Nigeria, Chinua Achebe said, “The most important thing is the leadership of the political kind because it is the stabilizer.” Another writer wrote many years ago, “When politics stumbles, a country pays”. So, you must never allow politics to stumble and politics in my context means the management of the affairs of a nation in their totality for their general good. In Africa when we talk politics, you mean elections and holding positions or privilege, that is not politics. So, I believe that that is what must happen in South Sudan. It must also be realized by political leadership that leadership is a relay race, you run your leg and you hand over the baton to the next generation. As Mwalimu [Julius] Nyerere ably said; “You are not successful until your successor succeeds.”
Q: What is your message to the leaders of South Sudan and her citizens?
A: My message to the leaders in South Sudan is that God has given you the honor and privilege of presiding over the affairs of their nation. Think about your legacy and ask yourself what future generations will remember you for. Will they remember that you are the leaders who created an enabling environment and laid the foundation stone that will enable South Sudanese of this generation and generations yet to be born to thrive in an environment of peace and prosperity? Or they will remember as individuals who having been given the honor and privilege to serve, you used it for short-term personal benefit. The time is now!
The extension that you have given yourselves, this time around, I support them, but only on the understanding that there will be no further extensions and that that period will be used to ensure that there is a proper constitutional dispensation, that census will be undertaken, voters will be registered and in the next electoral cycle that the people will be enabled so that they do not vote based on tribe or religion or based on corruption.
To the people of South Sudan, remember that good governance requires that the people are vigilant. And because South Sudan is a multi-ethnic community, let us not forget that ethnicity in and of itself doesn’t resolve problems. Let us use our diversity, whether you are a Nuer, Dinka, or Chollo, the duty is to work to ensure that South Sudan is a thriving nation. And it can be done if you engage yourself to ensure that South Sudan thrives for this generation and future generations.