Introduction
This paper analyses Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s recent visit to Juba, where he met with South Sudanese leaders to discuss critical political developments, particularly the proposed reunification of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). This initiative aims to stabilize South Sudan, reflecting Uganda’s interests in the region’s security and economic cooperation. The paper also highlights the ongoing political marginalization of the Equatoria region, despite its resources and strategic significance. This exclusion has worsened economic disparities and fueled tensions among ethnic groups. The struggles of the Equatorians underscore the need for an inclusive governance model that acknowledges their contributions.
Unfortunately, the current leadership of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) ruling party in Uganda and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Party in South Sudan undermine the aspirations of Equatoria, and without stronger representation akin to the SPLA, our community risks continued disenfranchisement.
Today, there is unease among Ugandan leaders about a potential Equatorian rise to power, due to the dominance of Dinka factions within the SPLM. President Museveni’s recent visit to South Sudan aims to strengthen bilateral relations and address concerns about the SPLM’s internal struggles. This visit suggests the possibility of a leadership shift in South Sudan, which could redefine political dynamics and impact Uganda’s interests. Museveni’s proactive approach features the importance of regional stability and the complex interplay of power among South Sudan’s factions.
Equatoria must move from being spectators to active participants in the current political and diplomatic process before it is too late. Let us not simply accept the narrative of ‘we are South Sudanese.’ We must critically assess whether our country reflects our diverse identities, cultural heritage, and community values. Are our education systems nurturing our youth? Does our political landscape represent our voices? Are economic opportunities creating prosperity for all, or just benefiting a few? Do we still feel the safety and security we once had in our villages? By engaging in this self-assessment, we can envision how South Sudan represents who we are. The time to act is now; we cannot afford to wait.
Secrecy of the visit and what a Unified SPLM means
The reunification process of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Arusha, Tanzania, which began in 2015, was unsuccessful due to deep-seated political, ideological, and personal divisions among its factions. Key issues included personal mistrust between President Salva Kiir and senior SPLM colleagues, especially First Vice President Riek Machar. The Arusha Reunification Agreement of January 2015 aimed to restore party unity and governance but has seen slow or ignored implementation, especially after Machar’s return in 2016, which led to renewed violence. While the Arusha process focused on party unity, other initiatives prioritized national peace, creating competition between approaches. The fragile peace collapsed in July 2016 with violence in Juba, leading to Machar’s flight and further deterioration of trust.
The reunification efforts are always seen as political maneuvers rather than genuine reconciliation, with leaders prioritizing power retention. President Museveni argued that the Arusha process failed due to political expediency, mistrust, and violence, compounded by a lack of enforcement mechanisms and external pressure for compliance. In this context, Museveni’s visit to South Sudan aims to reinitiate the Arusha unification process as a viable path forward for the country. Further, the NRM/A leadership has concluded that Juba lacks an effective government and that the R-ARCSS needs to end. President Museveni now aligns with President Kiir, advocating for SPLM unification under a new leader that could include some from the SPLM-IO, potentially excluding Kiir and Riek. This development is significant yet overlooked by many analysts in Juba. Next, we will explore the interests of Uganda and Kenya as key players in South Sudan’s politics.
Uganda
Uganda’s involvement in South Sudan has been significant, particularly through military support and intervention under President Yoweri Museveni. Since 2013, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) has aided the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in its conflict against opposition forces led by Riek Machar,
helping President Salva Kiir maintain power. Critics have raised concerns about human rights violations and sovereignty issues. At the same time, Uganda justifies its actions as necessary for regional stability and protecting its national interests, particularly from threats like the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). In addition to military aid, Uganda has engaged in peacekeeping efforts through the East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), promoting an inclusive peace process.
Uganda has been instrumental in regional mediation, facilitating peace talks between warring factions and providing humanitarian aid to South Sudanese refugees. Economically, Uganda relies on its trade partnership with South Sudan, exporting various goods and using South Sudan as a corridor for access to international markets through Kenya’s Mombasa Port.
Instability in South Sudan risks Uganda’s trade and overall economic growth. Furthermore, Uganda has shown interest in South Sudan’s oil reserves, recognizing the potential for joint ventures that could enhance its economy. Thus, stability in South Sudan is essential for safeguarding Uganda’s investments and promoting new opportunities.
Kenya
Kenya has been instrumental in South Sudan’s peace processes, leveraging its role as a regional mediator through the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Since the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Kenya has facilitated critical discussions between President Kiir and opposition leader Machar, playing a key role in the 2013-2015 ceasefire and the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, in addition to the Tumaini Initiative, launched in early 2024, which aims to tackle political, governance, security, and economic issues in South Sudan. However, progress on the Tumaini Initiative has stalled amid ongoing negotiations involving various stakeholders.
As a regional power, Kenya collaborates closely with IGAD and the African Union to promote stability in South Sudan, and its military has participated in peacekeeping operations, including the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Economically, Kenya maintains strong ties with South Sudan through trade, infrastructure, and investment. Key Kenyan exports include manufactured goods, Oil & gas, and building materials.
Prominent Kenyan companies such as Kenya Commercial Bank and Equity Bank provide essential banking services, while Kenya Airways connects Juba to various destinations, enhancing trade and travel. Additionally, East African Breweries and UAP Holdings support South Sudan’s market, and consultancy firms like Ernst & Young are increasingly active in sectors vital for economic development. Though businesses contribute modestly to South Sudan’s economy, they are essential for the stability of the shillings and strengthen Kenya’s economic presence in the region. Furthermore, Kenya hosts many South Sudanese refugees, bolstering its influence in post-conflict recovery and humanitarian aid discussions.
What is at play
President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda is working to unify leaders of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) through a ‘Revitalised SPLM Arusha-Kampala’ process. This initiative aims to enhance cohesion among SPLM leaders with Museveni’s support, fostering peace and stability in South Sudan. His approach involves backing leaders in Juba who align with an endorsed SPLM successor, emphasising collaboration to rebuild trust among historically divided factions. This unification effort is tied to the Tumaini Initiative, which seeks Kenya’s involvement in establishing a federal governance structure in South Sudan, addressing the grievances of marginalized communities like the Equatorians.
Museveni values Kenya’s support, believing federalism can lead to greater stability and inclusivity in governance. If successful in unifying the SPLM, the Tumaini Protocols negotiated in Kenya could serve as a blueprint for governance in South Sudan, reinforcing political cohesion and aiming for a stable, unified nation capable of overcoming its historical challenges.
What does a revived SPLM/A mean for Equatoria?
From 1983 to 2005, the SPLM/A was led by Dinka leaders John Garang and Salva Kiir, with limited representation from Equatorians and the Nuer. Equatorians were hesitant to voice concerns due to past violence and fear stemming from the ‘Kokora’ period and their ties to the Sudanese Armed Forces. This marginalization persisted post-independence in 2011, with the Dinka-Nuer political monopoly continuing to exclude Equatorians from high-ranking military and political roles. Key positions in the government remained dominated by Dinka, leaving Equatorians in lower-level roles despite Juba being in Equatoria. The SPLM/A-IO, led by Riek Machar, also mirrored this exclusion, prompting unrest and calls for greater representation. Groups like the National Salvation Front (NAS) emerged, advocating for Equatorian rights and autonomy amidst the ongoing struggle for recognition.
The peace agreements following the civil war, namely ARCSS and R-ARCSS, failed to dismantle the political monopoly of Dinka factions, maintaining the underrepresentation of Equatorians in key areas like government and policymaking. Initiatives by Equatorians are often overlooked and dismissed as tribal, ignoring the deeper issues at play. The question remains: will a unified SPLM/A be different this time? A successful unification must fundamentally address the struggles of our people, who continue to seek the benefits of independence and peace. The focus on oil-rich regions in Upper Nile and Unity States has neglected Equatoria, resulting in inadequate development and infrastructure. Two-thirds of the population live as refugees or are politically sidelined. For SPLM/A unification to succeed, it must recognize these realities and aspirations. The SPLM/A has alienated Equatorian communities, prompting demands for greater autonomy, self-determination, or independence.
The good news is that Equatoria now boasts a new generation of leaders ready to forge a better future, with or without the unification of the SPLM.
The Impact
The political exclusion of Equatorians has created a deep mistrust of the national government and heightened calls for autonomy, with some leaders advocating for complete independence. This disenchantment has fueled militant opposition, with rebel groups resisting central authority to assert their rights and seek a voice in governance. To foster political representation, new frameworks must address the concerns of all regions, especially Equatoria. There must be equitable resource distribution and political inclusion, allowing Equatoria to benefit from South Sudan’s wealth without struggle. Additionally, security sector reforms are needed to enhance Equatorian representation in military and law enforcement, building trust with the community.
Our union is resolute in supporting a comprehensive process that ensures the rights and representation of every community. We can pave the way toward a stable and prosperous future for all South Sudanese citizens by fostering inclusive dialogue and collaboration.
Together, as one united front, we are determined to forge a path that leads to Security, Peace and shared prosperity for our land.
Thank you.
Dr Ayine Nigo is an author and lecturer at the University of Westminster, London, United Kingdom. He can be reached via nigoayine@gmail.com.
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