BY LUKA BIONG DENG
I attended as a private citizen the occasion marking the resumption of the Tumaini Peace Talks in Nairobi on December 4, 2024. The meeting was attended well by regional and international dignitaries and friends of South Sudan. Despite other competing global crises, this high attendance showed that the world is still caring about the peaceful future of South Sudan. I was enthused by the opening remarks by Gen. Kuol Manyang, the head of the delegation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU), particularly his recognition of the roles played by his comrades Pagan Amum, Oyay Deng, Paul Malong, and Stephen Buoy during liberation struggle as legacies recorded into the history of the nation and to serve as a foundation for unity and peace in South Sudan. This recognition came against the backdrop of his earlier statements that belittled the political weight of these historical leaders.
My second impression was the softening in the position in the RTGONU, from the initial position of treating the outcomes of the Tumaini Talks as an addendum to a new position of complementing and aligning them with the 2018 Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) as stressed in the opening remarks by Gen. Kuol. While the initial position of the Opposition Groups was that the outcomes of the Tumaini Talks to almost supersede the R-ARCSS, this position is now slightly moderated with a focus on the complementarity of the two processes as implicitly indicated in the opening remarks by Gen. Pagan Amum, as he explicitly mentioned their quest for lasting peace to be built upon previous efforts including the unimplemented R-ARCSS. This ambiguous link between the R-ARCSS and the outcomes of the Tumaini Talks has been clearly clarified in the remarks of the Principal Secretary of the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, as he underscored that the initial inception of the Tumaini Initiative was not to supplant or abrogate the R-ARCSS but to complement and help to implement the R-ARCSS.
My third observation is the genuine call for an inclusive process, particularly the participation of Gen. Thomas Cirillo and Gen. Simon Gatwech in the Tumaini Talks. Although some see this call as derailing the peace talks, the mediators may need to consider parallel engagements, particularly with Gen. Thomas in a different venue in the region. Gen. Simon Gatwech may be persuaded if more concerted efforts are exerted.
My fourth observation, although minor, there was a lack of clarity regarding the two weeks mentioned in the joint communique that was issued during the visit of President William Ruto to Juba on November 6, 2024. However, Gen. Lazarus Sumbeiywo, the Chief Mediator, made it clear in his opening remarks that the two heads of state, President Salva Kiir and President William Ruto, directed the Tumaini Talks to be concluded within two weeks. Also, the Principal Secretary of the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the parties in his opening remarks to promise and vow to conclude the Tumaini Talks with a peace agreement as the most precious Christmas Gift to the people of South Sudan.
My fifth observation was the apparent divergent views about the status of the initialed protocols. While the delegation of the RTGoNU has explicitly expressed in the opening remarks by Gen. Kuol the need to improve and adjust some protocols to avoid duplication and overlapping and to ensure effective implementation of these protocols, the Opposition Groups utterly rejected any attempt to renegotiate the initialed protocols as articulated by Gen. Pagan in his opening remarks. No doubt renegotiating the protocols already agreed by the parties will certainly set an unhealthy precedent and open Pandora’s box. This reminds us of our experience with the Abyei Protocol that was renegotiated by the parties to the 2005 Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with the intransigent and ill-intention of the Government of Sudan to deliberately kill the Protocol. This has resulted in the political predicament that the people of Abyei currently face. Unlike the parties to the CPA, the parties to the Tumaini Initiative share a common objective of a peaceful and stable South Sudan. Regardless of the intention of the RTGoNU for renegotiating the initialed protocols, it will be in the best interest of peace that the Opposition Groups to listen at least to the suggested changes. Although the metaphor of opening Pandora’s box might bring about great troubles or misfortune, it could also hold hope. If the suggested changes in the initialed protocols are with good intentions as expressed by Gen. Kuol Manyang, the Opposition Groups may consider negotiating the suggested changes. The Opposition Groups may in principle accept to negotiate the suggested changes after agreeing on the remaining protocol such as the responsibility-sharing protocol, presenting new protocol on elections, and how to bring to a halt any further extension of the transitional period, particularly Article 8.4 of the R-ARCSS not to be used in future to extend the transitional period and postpone elections unless under new political infrastructure, and inclusion in the general principles a commitment by the post-Tumaini Initiative new transitional government to play a leading role of ending the war in Sudan and resolving the unfinished business of the CPA such as the Abyei Protocol and the disputed and claimed border areas with Sudan.
With more clarity provided on the first day of the resumption of the Tumaini Talks on what is expected and the areas of difference, and the passionate and overwhelming appeal by all stakeholders and friends of South Sudan to the negotiating parties not to let down the people of South Sudan and to conclude these talks with peace agreement, the outstanding areas of difference are not major, and they could easily be resolved in shortest possible time. I was impressed by the opening remarks by Professor Pauline Riak, representative of the non-state stakeholders groups, as she reminded the parties about the bitter reality of the undeserved suffering of the people of South Sudan and strategically situated the people at the center of the talks and echoed that the failure by the parties to end this last round of talks without peace is not an option. I left the event with the optimism that the Tumaini Initiative holds a glimpse of hope for restoring peace in South Sudan. As mentioned by the Kenyan Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the word Tumaini “Hope” is not a casual concept but it is a revolutionary concept that challenges the undesired status quo for a better one. The glimpse of hope from the Tumaini Initiative is expected not to be a casual one but a revolutionary hope that will change South Sudan for the better. Despite this optimism, the talks might drag on beyond the two weeks, particularly if the parties agree to renegotiate the initialed protocols.
Luka Biong Deng, PhD, is the Managing Director of the Sudd Institute, a national think tank in South Sudan; an adjunct professor at the Institute of Peace, Development and Security Studies at the University of Juba, South Sudan; and an adjunct distinguished professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) at the National Defense University, Washington, DC.
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