On 31 July 2023, Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin, one of the three leaders of the Nasir Declaration, and the chairman of the National Democratic Movement (NDM), made a hasty return to the capital Juba, after three years of self-imposed exile.

The speedy comeback of Dr. Akol has left a lot to be inquired about. Moreover, the timing of his return, and the reception accorded to him by the government’s mouthpieces, raises more questions than answers.

Dr. Akol was received at Juba International Airport like a foreign guest of the state. From afar, I could see a sign of guilt on the facial expression of Presidential Affairs Minister Dr. Barnaba Marial Benjamin who welcomed him. The minister was a bit apologetic and sympathetic to Dr. Akol for the obvious reasons explained hereunder.

Those who have likened the return of Dr. Lam Akol to the usual return of an ordinary South Sudanese politician will be sadly mistaken.

Over the years, the pro-establishment have always been wary of Dr. Akol. This is after they studied that he was the brainchild of the infamous Nasir Declaration. In August 1991, Dr. Riek Machar, now the first vice president, was brought to lead the Nasir Declaration simply because he was the senior-most in the SPLM/SPLA hierarchy.

Those who perused the book titled “The Politics of Liberation in South Sudan, An Insider’s View’’ by Dr. Peter Adwok Nyaba, will concur that Dr. Akol had wanted to lead the Nasir Declaration. However, in one of their ‘retail conversations’, Dr. Nyaba warned Dr. Lam Akol to stop harboring an ambition to lead the Nasir Declaration fearing that he will be in for a rude shock like other renegade SPLM leaders who were in jail at the time.

In 2020, during the formation of the government of national unity, in line with the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), President Salva Kiir and company made sure that Dr. Akol was not appointed minister or vice president on the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) ticket. The cardinal reasons were that Dr. Akol, being a critical thinker and rabble-rouser, will sell ideas to Dr. Riek Machar to scuttle the government. The government knew that without Dr. Akol in the system, Dr. Machar will be starving of ideas to rock the government from within.

Dr. Akol has seen his woes coming!

You might recall that before the signing and implementation of the R-ARCSS, he had pushed for SSOA elections won by late General Peter Gatdet. Dr. Akol’s push for the SSOA elections and subsequent support for Gen. Gatdet’s candidacy was aimed at countering the likes of Vice President Hussein Abdelbaggi and Changson Chang. Unfortunately, death robbed Gatdet too soon.

Gen. Peter Gatdet passed away as both a de jure and de facto chairman of SSOA. If Gen. Gatdet was still alive and was still the chairperson of SSOA, Dr. Lam Akol could not have his appointment and or candidacy for a vice president slot sabotaged very easily.

Before he departed from Juba years ago, Dr. Akol had a bitter exchange with Josephine Joseph Lagu of SSOA. At the time, Dr. Akol alleged that SSOA was compromised and controlled by President Kiir’s camp. In her rebuttal, Josephine Lagu vehemently denied the allegations in a press statement entitled ‘‘SSOA rejects accusations of being controlled by South Sudan’s Kiir.’’

In 2016, Dr. Akol rebelled and abandoned his ministerial post after Dr. Machar was brutally deposed and chased to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). When he publicly announced his rebellion, it was rumored that he wanted to inherit the SPLM-IO in the event President Kiir succeeded in eliminating Machar.

There were three facts to reach this assertion or conclusion. One, Dr. Akol went to Addis Ababa and issued a press statement at the residence of Dr. Riek Machar. Second, Dr. Akol stated that he was going to team up with SPLM-IO to dethrone President Kiir’s regime by military means. Third, Dr. Akol used strong words in his statement against Taban Deng Gai who succeeded Dr. Machar as first vice president describing him as a ‘poodle.’

General Deng in his capacity as de facto first vice president, replaced Dr. Machar’s appointees with people majority of who were Nuer. Intentionally, General Taban Deng wanted to earn Nuer support for them to abandon the war even if his predecessor was no more. 

On the other hand, Dr. Akol, with his vast experience in bush politics, knew that the Nuer as a community would not be enticed with positions to abandon the war if Dr. Machar was gone. Instead, they (Nuer) would proceed with the protracted armed struggle that needed a doyen and public intellectual like him.

The coming back of Dr. Lam Akol has elicited hard talk which revolves around two critical questions. First, is whether Dr. Akol was compromised to come back to participate in sham elections that will be a walk-over for President Kiir. Second, whether Kiir plans to make Dr. Akol his running-mate in the general elections slated for December 2024.

On whether Dr. Akol came back to participate in the sham election; perhaps President Kiir wants to go the Kenyan way. In 2017, after the Kenyan Supreme Court nullified the results of the presidential elections there, Former President Uhuru Kenyatta rushed for a rerun with the Kenyan briefcase parties without implementing the requisite conditions made by the apex court in its verdict. Eventually, the rerun became a walk in the park for President Uhuru because his archrival Raila Amolo Odinga boycotted the polls.

In this case, should Dr. Lam Akol buy this treacherous political deal, then it will amount to an offense of selling his soul. I know NDM is not a briefcase party for sale but if President Kiir manages to prevail over Dr. Akol to allow him to go into elections before the implementation of the conditions provided by the R-ARCISS, then we are not yet off the hook.

Secondly, whether President Kiir is planning to make Dr. Akol his running-mate; this is possible if Kiir wants to rebrand his tainted political image using Dr. Lam Akol’s reform credentials.

However, the danger of Dr. Akol becoming a running-mate to Kiir is that they are not the proverbial birds of the same feathers. They can win the election, with the power and advantage of incumbency, but I doubt if their presidency will last. I am afraid Dr. Lam Akol will soon be accused of plotting to oust the government in the event he tries to initiate some reforms in the next government.

Whatever the case, I think time will tell. Other than the time, Dr. Akol will tell the country later. Luckily, he always shares the rationale of his decisions and the political steps he has taken in his political career.

In conclusion, Dr. Lam Akol is the true epitome of a South Sudanese opposition leader whether in or outside of government. He is a public intellectual that our nation relies on for crucial information, and thus any win by the government over Dr. Akol will leave South Sudanese intellectually malnourished.

The author is the chairman of the South Sudan Liech Community Association in Kenya and can be reached via eligodakb@yahoo.com.

The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj