Since the launch of the “Tumaini Initiative” on May 9, 2024, the political focus in South Sudan has shifted towards the ongoing negotiations in Nairobi. These talks are being closely watched, with significant hopes pinned on their potential outcomes amidst the country’s numerous internal and external challenges, including political, security, economic, and diplomatic issues.
Observers of South Sudanese affairs view the Nairobi negotiations as a desperate attempt by the government to salvage its legitimacy on the international stage, especially with the transitional period set to end in December this year. The government is also seeking solutions to the worsening crises affecting the people of South Sudan, which have reached a critical point without successful remedies, leading to widespread anxiety among citizens due to the uncertainty of the country’s political future.
Government’s perspective
From the government’s viewpoint (the ruling party) in South Sudan, the “Tumaini Initiative” is seen as a project to bolster the party’s position, reinvigorate its institutions, and support its continued rule, which is under threat. The ruling party suffers from a clear decline in its political approach and handling of national issues, resulting in a loss of confidence even among its members. This situation indicates that the party is eroding from within, confirmed by many members who state that the party has lost the direction set by its late leader, Dr. John Garang de Mabior, who aimed to establish a strong central state in the region but couldn’t achieve this vision due to his untimely death.
The surprise
Over time, it became evident that the opposition negotiating party in Nairobi is not just aiming for power-sharing but is seeking to assume national responsibility to save the country from total collapse. General Pagan Amum, in his opening speech, emphasized that the opposition is not merely negotiating for a new political agreement but is also criticizing the government for failing to implement previous peace agreements. Pagan proposed a new approach to addressing the country’s challenges, advocating for a “New Social Contract.” This contract includes establishing a governance system suitable for the country that ensures long-term political stability.
Internationalisation and seriousness
External interaction plays a significant role in the Nairobi negotiations, especially in terms of support to reach satisfactory outcomes agreed upon by all parties. This interaction helps reveal the intentions of regional and international partners in dedicating their efforts to support the talks.
Kenya’s role is crucial in this context. Through the Tumaini Initiative, Kenya is enhancing its foreign policy by pushing the parties to reach an agreement and rallying international support for its efforts. This initiative comes at a critical time for South Sudan’s leadership, following a decline in international support for the government due to the lack of political will among South Sudanese leaders to achieve the necessary political and democratic transformation.
In my view, Kenya’s efforts are succeeding in rallying international and regional support for the platform, despite some hesitation. The involvement of various countries and their support for the platform is a positive indicator and can boost the seriousness of the parties in the talks.
The US Ambassador to South Sudan, Adler, confirmed during his visit to the negotiation site in Nairobi that the United States supports the talks, provided they achieve a democratic transformation that meets the people’s aspirations. Norway also expressed its support for efforts to achieve stability and peace in South Sudan, as long as it contributes to achieving political consensus and a process that establishes democratic transformation.
Internal concerns
Anxiety is growing among the internal parties forming the revitalized peace agreement, as the Nairobi talks seem to be moving towards replacing the revitalized agreement with a new one, which could affect the government’s structure and political participation issues. This anxiety was evident in the recent speech by Dr. Riek Machar on June 18, 2024. Machar, the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition, expressed multiple reservations and concerns, suggesting that the Nairobi talks might undermine their role in the new phase.
In my opinion, this concern is somewhat justified but not strong, given the presence of representatives from the revitalized peace agreement parties in the Nairobi talks, such as the National Unity Government, who have significant influence in shaping South Sudan’s future. Despite the nature of the concern, South Sudan urgently needs a political consensus as soon as possible to address the people’s issues and ensure the state’s survival as a cohesive entity. The current signs of collapse require comprehensive political consensus to avoid failure and complete breakdown.
Thus, the presence of representatives from the National Unity Government in the Nairobi talks can be a stabilizing factor, as they can work to ensure the implementation of the expected agreements and seek consensus solutions. Political consensus is necessary to maintain the state’s cohesion and ensure a better future for the people.
Significance of the platform
In the pursuit of political stability and an end to ongoing conflicts in South Sudan, the Nairobi platform emerges as a crucial dialogue forum. The necessity compels all parties to engage in dialogue and positive discussions on governance issues rather than resorting to armed conflicts. The ongoing talks in Nairobi, in my opinion, hold great potential as they focus on political stability and reducing future armed conflicts. Achieving this requires changing the ways agreements are implemented, particularly by the government, which has a history of reneging on promises and commitments.
The importance of the Nairobi platform lies in its potential to reshape the governing system in South Sudan and change the approach to governance. This platform can be a gateway to introducing new national leaders who can gain the trust of the people and meet their aspirations.
Despite the reservations of many opposition political groups, such as the National Salvation Front led by General Thomas Cirillo, who lack confidence in Kiir’s regime, the Kiir regime must strive to view these opposition bodies as partners in the nation-building process and recognize their right to political participation.
The Nairobi platform can establish a governance system aligned with the permanent constitution, encompassing issues of governance, social justice, power-sharing, and political and civil liberties. These principles can contribute to the necessary democratic transformation to maintain the country’s stability and prevent future fragmentation. Recognizing the opposition parties as key partners in nation-building can enhance the chances of successful talks and achieve lasting stability in South Sudan.
Given the above, in my opinion, the Nairobi platform is one of the significant milestones in South Sudan’s history that must be considered. The magnitude of the challenges facing the regime primarily, and the people in particular, could push the country into a more dangerous phase than ever before. All actors must find a national framework that can unite them, built on a philosophical basis to protect the country from collapse and prevent the people from resorting to begging in neighbouring countries due to living conditions.
The region itself has become a source of concern due to the severe security challenges it faces, such as the violent political conflict in Sudan. Therefore, the importance of the Nairobi platform lies in its being a venue for reaching a political agreement that can achieve stability for the country.
This agreement must be comprehensive and include clear and binding implementation mechanisms for all, including the government and the opposition. The crucial thing now is for all parties to adopt a shared vision for achieving peace and stability and to move away from military solutions. The international and regional community must seriously support these efforts by providing the necessary political and economic support to ensure the agreements’ implementation.
For this reason, South Sudan’s leaders must show genuine political will to achieve the democratic change and transformation that the people aspire to. In my opinion, the Nairobi platform can be the beginning of rebuilding trust between the multiple active parties in the country, setting new foundations for a governance system that promotes justice and equality and ensures the participation of all groups in the political process. It represents a precious opportunity that should not be missed, as it can be a starting point for a better future for South Sudan and its people.
Bathumi Ayul is the founder and Editor-in-Chief, www.wajumanews.com and can be reached on bathum44@yahoo.com
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.