The appointment of Dr. Benjamin Bol Mel as Vice President may have surprised many, and enraged some. However, upon closer inspection, it makes a lot of sense from a neutral perspective.
There is a consensus that Kiir wants Bol to succeed him, and I share the same hunch. However, the real debate lies in the why. Why not choose one of the senior members of the party, especially since the SPLM is a hierarchical organization—the same structure that brought Mr. Kiir to power? This is where I diverge from some of the opinions I’ve read. In my view, there could be many reasons, but it’s not about Kiir wanting to pass power to the “new generation”—an illusion the SPLM has championed for decades. Nor is it about power rotation between states.
Here’s why: autocrats do not relinquish power voluntarily for obvious reasons. The years spent plundering public resources and silencing critics create an enormous burden, one that’s nearly impossible to bear without power. In other words, facing accountability is the autocrat’s worst nightmare should power slip away. It’s not about what might happen to their subjects, but rather, what will happen to them personally. Mr. Kiir is no exception. As his sunset approaches, he needs a thoroughly vetted loyalist who will shield him from legal exposure, keep his family relevant in national politics, and protect his family’s ill-gotten assets.
Not only does Bol fit the bill in terms of loyalty, but he also embodies a grey area that divides public opinion—an extremely important factor in the murky world of politics. Educated, wealthy, from a different state, and more importantly, a Jesh Amer (or Red Army member)—whom they still diabolically refer to as “youth,” even though many of them are grandfathers. This makes for a convenient smokescreen to sell to the ever-unsuspecting populace. Naturally, Mr. Kiir would have preferred to pass the torch to one of his children—and I have no doubt that one of the clowns in his inner circle may have suggested this—but the lack of a grey area would have sparked significant dissent in some quarters.
This is where Kiir has proven me—and many others—dead wrong. He is a genius, contrary to what many assumed. To hatch such an operation to consolidate power as he has just done, of course, naysayers will argue I’m being an alarmist—but it’s not something the average person could pull off. It requires a well-thought-out strategy akin to the schemes of historical figures like Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Vladimir Putin, to name just a few.
This is how it works. When Mr. Kiir assumed leadership of the SPLM, he strategically surrounded himself with those he had bitterly fought against. A prime example is his choice of Tutkew, who grew up in the palace of the notorious Islamist Omar Hassan al-Bashir, as a security advisor to the SPLM. It’s no surprise that Abyei was eventually betrayed. Some may point to Riek Machar, who rebelled against the SPLM at the worst possible time, but there is a key difference: racial hatred and a desire for subjugation are not the same as sheer hunger for power. That, I will always argue.
Although Kiir’s decision to involve his former adversaries was a betrayal to our fallen heroes, it was a stroke of genius. Why? Because it’s psychology 101. It’s easier to manipulate someone who owes you a debt. He likely understood that his former comrades owed him nothing and could easily refuse his demands. By contrast, aligning with those who owed him loyalty created an opportunity for him to push his agenda.
Then came the successful rebranding of the SPLM—a modernized version of the NCPLM for those who believe the SPLM is a thing of the past. The purge began. Meek senior members like Awet Akot, Kuol Manyang, Nhial Deng, and now Wani Igga, were systematically pushed to the periphery, under the guise of “SPLM is now a party without borders.” This erased the old hierarchical traditions of the SPLM. The most vocal dissenters either took up arms or were jailed during the carnage of 2013—a tragedy from which the country will never fully recover. With Riek and Lam effectively sidelined, the SPLM that handed Kiir power has been shattered. Now, Kiir has absolute power to wield. Though the scheme is unpleasant and will harm South Sudan for generations, the diligence behind it, the plan that blind-sided all of us, deserves academic recognition.
To those enraged by Mr. Kiir’s recent appointment, it is too late. But I will boldly say this: he is not to blame. Blame Kuol, Awet, and Wani. Let me explain why. When you trade your dignity for loyalty, people will take you for granted. If you can’t stand up to your boss when they infringe on your dignity or act in ways that go against your conscience, you become expendable. It’s an unwritten rule of nature. Kiir understands this better than anyone. When he felt that the SPLM leadership was sidestepping him—whether true or just rumors—he felt insulted and forced the 2004 Rumbek Conference. Kuol, Awet, and Wani knew this better than anyone.
But Mr. Kiir also realized that the trio, who essentially handed him power in 2005 after the tragic death of Dr. Garang, had meekly watched as he pushed boundaries and became emboldened. He began firing people and running the country outside the SPLM creed at will, without resistance. They watched him plunge the country into the abyss with the false claims of a coup in 2013, yet said nothing. Now, the consequences are here. When would enough have been enough for someone they installed to stand up to him?
Let’s be honest—only a foolish autocrat would pass up the chance to exploit power when his equals—those who once stood shoulder to shoulder with him and installed him—chose to be his errand boys. I contend that Mr. Kiir is not foolish. Give him a break. Let’s face it with humility—it is what it is!
The author, Mathiang G. Chot, is a South Sudanese doctoral student in Neuroscience and Behavior at the University of Windsor, ON, Canada. He can be reached at mathian@uwindsor.ca.
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.