The peace process in South Sudan, often described as fragile, now faces an even more insidious threat—one that undermines its very foundation. This challenge does not manifest as conventional warfare but rather as calculated political maneuvering designed to consolidate power in the hands of President Salva Kiir. The recent SPLM-IO Leadership Consultative Meeting at Palm Africa Hotel in Juba, framed as an effort to foster internal unity within the SPLM-IO, was in reality a carefully orchestrated attempt to sideline Dr. Riek Machar, the movement’s legitimate leader, and dismantle the SPLM-IO from within. This political maneuver exemplifies the erosion of democratic principles and the subversion of peacebuilding processes that have long characterized South Sudan’s conflict.
A Façade of Democratic Inclusivity
The consultative meeting, purportedly attended by over 500 SPLM-IO members, presented an illusion of democratic participation. However, many of the movement’s key leaders were conspicuously absent—not by choice, but because they are either detained, threatened, or excluded through covert coercion. Dr. Machar, who has led the SPLM-IO since its inception, remains under arbitrary detention following a suspicious and politically charged armed incident in Nasir—widely seen as a pretext for his continued imprisonment. Far from a genuine step toward reconciliation, this so-called “consultative” meeting was a covert coup engineered by Kiir’s administration to weaken Machar’s leadership and replace it with a more compliant faction loyal to Juba.
Historical Context: The 2016 Crisis and the Politics of Elimination
This episode bears striking parallels to the 2016 crisis, when Kiir’s administration used violence and constitutional manipulation to oust Machar as First Vice President. The J1 incident—where Kiir’s forces attacked Machar’s residence, forcing him to flee the country—marked a violent turning point in the peace process. While Machar sought refuge in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kiir installed Taban Deng Gai as First Vice President, further consolidating his grip on power.
The upheaval of 2016 demonstrated Kiir’s willingness to use force to eliminate opposition. Today, the tactics have shifted, but the strategy remains the same. Rather than relying on military confrontation, Kiir’s government now employs administrative tools—handpicking attendees and predetermining agendas—to marginalize Machar without overt violence. The goal, however, remains unchanged: eliminating Machar and securing unchallenged control over South Sudan’s political landscape.
The orchestration of the recent SPLM-IO meeting—from participant selection to the framing of discussions—reveals a deliberate effort to weaken the movement from within. The involvement of state operatives in shaping the meeting’s outcomes underscores the extent to which Kiir’s government manipulates political processes to maintain dominance. This was not an organic political gathering but a calculated move to entrench Kiir’s power.
The Political Anatomy of the SPLM-IO Meeting
The Juba meeting should be understood not as a genuine dialogue but as an instrument of political subjugation. The final communiqué, emphasizing “dialogue” and “commitment to peace,” was carefully crafted to portray the event as legitimate. Yet true dialogue requires the inclusion of all key stakeholders, particularly those holding legitimate leadership positions within the opposition. By excluding Machar and other SPLM-IO leaders, the meeting stripped the process of credibility, reducing it to a performative exercise meant to legitimize Kiir’s control over the opposition.
The communiqué’s emphasis on “peace” is profoundly ironic, given the exclusionary nature of the proceedings. Peace cannot be achieved when one side is systematically silenced. Dialogue cannot foster reconciliation when conducted under coercion. The SPLM-IO, as a major political force, must be properly represented in any meaningful peace process. Instead, what unfolded was a deliberate effort to bypass the movement’s legitimate leadership in favor of a pliable faction that Juba can easily control.
This political manipulation, though subtler than the violence of 2016, is equally dangerous. It undermines the foundational principles of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement. By reducing the SPLM-IO to a Juba-aligned faction, Kiir’s government seeks to entrench its dominance while sidelining those advocating for genuine reform and democratic accountability.
Implications for the 2018 Peace Agreement
The 2018 agreement was meant to be a turning point for South Sudan—a comprehensive framework addressing political, security, and humanitarian crises. A hard-won compromise brokered by regional and international actors, it embodied the hopes of millions of South Sudanese weary of war. Yet its fragility has become increasingly evident as political manipulation and the exclusion of opposition leaders persist.
The recent SPLM-IO meeting underscores the precarious state of the peace process. The blatant disregard for political inclusion, democratic representation, and accountability not only jeopardizes the agreement’s integrity but also sets a dangerous precedent. If Kiir’s government succeeds in neutralizing the opposition through such tactics, the entire peace process risks collapse. The SPLM-IO could be rendered irrelevant, absorbed by a government-loyal faction rather than remaining an independent political force representing the people’s will.
The Way Forward
The international community must act decisively to prevent South Sudan’s peace process from becoming another exercise in authoritarian consolidation. IGAD, the African Union, and South Sudan’s international partners must reject the outcomes of the Juba meeting, which excluded legitimate SPLM-IO leadership. Any changes to the movement’s leadership made without Machar’s participation must be declared invalid.
Moreover, the continued detention of political leaders, including Machar, violates the spirit of the 2018 agreement. Diplomatic pressure must be applied to secure their release. Peace cannot be built on coercion and manipulation. A durable solution requires an inclusive process that respects democratic principles, ensures justice for the unjustly detained, and guarantees full political participation.
We call for:
- The immediate release of Dr. Riek Machar and all political detainees.
- The rejection of any illegitimate restructuring of the SPLM-IO’s leadership.
- An independent investigation into the Nasir incident and Machar’s detention.
- Renewed international engagement to safeguard the 2018 peace agreement and ensure an inclusive political process.
The people of South Sudan deserve a peace rooted in transparency, justice, and the full participation of all stakeholders. Anything less will only perpetuate the cycle of conflict that has devastated the nation for far too long.
The author, Lobalimoi Lotekerimoi, is a South Sudanese political analyst and advocate for democratic reform.
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.