BY DR AYINE NIGO (PhD/FHEA)
Kenya boasts the most extensive and diverse economy in East Africa and hosts the region’s second-largest population. Additionally, the nation has a youthful, ambitious, well-educated workforce eager to contribute to its progress. These attributes have positioned Kenya as a significant player in tourism, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, IT-enabled services, and financial services. Moreover, Kenya is a pivotal hub for transportation in a substantial part of sub-Saharan Africa.
Kenya’s diplomatic approach to peace and security is underpinned by the recognition that stability and prosperity are indispensable for economic development. The nation firmly acknowledges the interdependence between its strength and economic well-being and the overall stability of the sub-region, Africa, and the broader global community. In recent months, the Kenyan government has been demonstrably engaged in facilitating peaceful conflict resolution in South Sudan. Kenya’s northern neighbor contends that effecting a regime change is unfeasible due to the perceived weakness of the opposition, be it through military intervention, a successful coup d’état, or a popular uprising, despite failing to put the country on a democratic path.
On the other hand, the Azimio coalition, Kenya’s leading opposition, notably the Wiper Democratic Movement in Kenya, conveyed apprehensions regarding Kenya’s foreign policy and its encroachments upon constitutional precepts. The coalition accentuated the nation’s role as a vanguard in the region and communal states while lamenting the current administration’s diplomatic miscalculations, which have strained relations with neighboring states, including the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. This declaration has struck a chord with the heterogeneous populace, particularly within the purview of President Ruto’s governance. Therefore, this paper argues that Kenya’s internal chaos and diplomatic tensions have inadvertently favored the South Sudan Peace process through the Tumaini Peace Initiative.
To put things into perspective, in West Africa, President Ruto’s foreign policy took a controversial turn in September 2022, as the decision was made to revoke the recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). This significant shift followed a meeting with the Moroccan Foreign Minister, marking a departure from Kenya’s longstanding position. President Ruto communicated this policy change via X formerly Twitter, announcing, “Kenya rescinds its recognition of the SADR and initiates steps to wind down the entity’s presence in the country.
Sudan on the other hand has leveled accusations against President Ruto from the North, asserting he is providing refuge to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) within Kenya. In response, Sudan has recalled its Ambassador from Nairobi, exacerbating diplomatic tensions between the two nations. Gen Hamdan Dagalo received a cordial reception in Kenya, meeting with President Ruto and being accorded an elaborate reception at the airport. This action has ignited controversy and engendered diplomatic apprehensions between Sudan and Kenya.
In East and Central Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo recalled its Ambassador to Kenya in mid-December due to the formation of a political-military alliance in Nairobi. This alliance, which included M23 rebels, was established before Congo’s presidential election to unite armed groups, opposition, and civil society to reinstate democracy. President Ruto affirmed that Kenya would not detain the rebel leaders for conducting a press conference, underscoring Kenya’s steadfast commitment to democratic principles. Furthermore, Kinshasa opted to keep the mandate of the Kenya-led East African Community Regional Force, previously deployed to stabilize the eastern region. South Africa and the regional bloc SADC had to step in to deploy forces to replace the Kenyan-led contingent.
Within Kenya’s backyard, On December 28, 2023, Kampala initiated legal proceedings against Nairobi at the East African Court of Justice. The lawsuit stemmed from Nairobi’s refusal to grant a license to the Uganda National Oil Corporation for local oil marketing operations and handling fuel imports intended for Uganda. Kampala’s legal action was prompted by the Kenyan government’s denial of the license. The basis of the lawsuit is Kampala’s assertion that Kenya breached a prior agreement, established in April of the preceding year, which stipulated support for Kampala’s direct fuel importation commencing in January 2024.
While in January 2024, a public dispute emerged between Kenya and Tanzania concerning air travel rights. Tanzania prohibited Kenya Airways from conducting passenger flights between Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in response to Nairobi’s denial of cargo flights by Air Tanzania Company Limited. The Director General of Tanzania’s Civil Aviation Authority declared that commencing on January 22, 2024, Kenya Airways would be suspended from operating passenger flights departing from Nairobi. Despite the eventual resolution, this matter left Kenya in a state of diplomatic vulnerability and desire for resolution.
Not long after, a significant protest erupted as Members of Parliament voted to endorse the widely unpopular Finance Bill. The scale of the protest was unprecedented, with demonstrators gathering in various parts of the country, including locations that seldom witness such demonstrations, including the President’s hometown. The protestors managed to breach Parliament, marking the first instance of such an occurrence since the 1982 attempted Air Force coup. The government was forced to deploy the military on the streets of Nairobi for the first time, highlighting the gravity of the situation. President Ruto came out on the evening of June 25 to label the protestors as criminals and traitors. However, faced with growing calls for Kenyans to occupy the State House and remove Ruto, the President chose to de-escalate the situation on June 26 by announcing the withdrawal of the Finance Bill, austerity measures by the executive arm, and a new focus on tackling corruption.
Given what has transpired, President Ruto’s domestic and foreign policies are at risk, and achieving prosperous peace in South Sudan through the Tumaini Peace Initiative would be a significant achievement for the President. It is important to remember that the Kenyan Government began displaying uncontrollable arrogance after Kenya’s designation as a non-NATO member. It was only when Gen Z acted against the Kenyan government that they realized things were not as they used to be. Kenya’s miscalculations on diplomatic and internal matters left it weak and vulnerable until the formation of a broad-based government.
Consequently, Kenya’s principal objective now is to employ diplomatic channels to pursue and execute a diplomatic resolution to establish sustainable peace with South Sudan now on top of its agenda. The diplomatic push also entails collaborative efforts with African nations to fortify their bid for the AU seat. The government is keen to work together with regional institutions for the prevention and resolution of conflicts, the provision of troops to support peace initiatives, and the establishment of both national and regional conflict centers with prevention capabilities through the Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs. Kenya is strongly committed to achieving stability in South Sudan and has increased its diplomatic efforts to support the High-Level Mediation for South Sudan through the Tumaini Peace Initiative.
We believe that the events after President Ruto’s assumption of power under the Kenya Kwanza administration have indirectly impacted the South Sudan Peace process. We assert that the diplomatic repercussions and ensuing protests have led to a decline in the country’s regional influence as a pivotal participant in various sectors such as tourism, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, IT-enabled services, and financial services. Consequently, the success of the Tumaini Peace Initiative is deemed crucial for Kenya, with the potential to influence Kenya’s diplomatic efforts significantly. It is therefore in Kenya’s best interest to ensure the favorable outcome of the Tumaini Peace Initiative. The diplomatic efforts, particularly the protest, benefit South Sudan by accelerating and supporting Tumaini as a direct beneficiary of these policies.
Dr Ayine Nigo is an author and lecturer at the University of Westminster, London, United Kingdom. He can be reached via nigoayine@gmail.com.
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