The author, a Sudanese diplomat based in Juba, advocates for economic cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan including efforts to boost oil production and to extend transportation and electricity infrastructure from Sudan into South Sudan.
Friday, the 9th of January, 2015 will coincide with the tenth anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that silenced the guns between the Sudan government and SPLA/M. The CPA paved the way for the people of South Sudan to create their own country in the self-determination referendum held in January 2011. The relations between Sudan and South Sudan witnessed ups and downs throughout the last ten years. At this crucial juncture, one finds that it may be useful to reflect on the relations between two countries and its future.
The most important lesson learnt in the past ten years is that in spite of the past grievances and the challenges that faced the implementation of some provisions in the CPA, as well as the difficulties that currently slow the pace of the relations between Sudan and South Sudan, it has increasingly become evident that the two neighbours are interdependent economically, politically and security wise. They have no other option than to cooperate. There are many factors that make cooperation between the two neighbours inevitable. This will be illustrated below.
There are efficient transport infrastructure linking Sudan and South Sudan such as the river transport and the railway line that links Wau to Port Sudan. Utilizing them will substantially reduce the transportation and insurance cost. They can play a positive role in lowering the prices in South Sudan especially in the northern states. This is very important during this time of soaring prices in South Sudan. It will help in reducing the inflation rate, improving the standard of living and boosting the economy’s growth rate.
These infrastructures can be used to import all the materials needed in the rehabilitation and reconstruction process in the war- affected states and thus easing the process and expediting it. On the other side, Sudan will benefit from finding market for its exports and increasing its foreign currency earnings.
Sudan is a pivotal partner in the humanitarian operations in South Sudan. This was evident in the Agreement to transport Humanitarian Assistance to South Sudan through the Sudanese territories signed by the two countries and the World Food Programme in July, 2014. The Agreement opens the way for providing humanitarian assistance to the most affected population in South Sudan. The last rainy season in Sudan was one of the best in the last 30 years. There is a big surplus of agricultural products especially cereals that can be used in this humanitarian operation.
At a time when the international oil prices are dwindling, the two countries find that their oil revenues, which is the backbone of their economies, are declining due do this drop. The conflict in South Sudan stopped oil production in Unity State since December 2013 and affected production in Upper Nile fields. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil prices will continue to plummet in 2015. This means that two neighbors need to cooperate in order to restart oil production in Unity State and increase production in Upper Nile fields. Increasing oil production is vitally important in offsetting the decline in oil prices.
In the near future, the two neighbours are expected to be faced with the daunting task of post-conflict reconstruction, rehabilitation, DDR, and development. Huge financial resources will be needed that can only be secured through increased oil production.
Having normal relations between Sudan and South Sudan will relieve the two neighbors from wasting their resources in a senseless and destructive arms race. The last thing that the two peoples need is draining their meager resources in military expenditure at the expense of social and economic development.
Normalizing the relation between the two countries will help in sustaining peace and stability in both countries. This will render the accusations and counter accusations of harbouring rebels and support to be a thing from the past. Therefore, rebels will find that negotiation is the only way to achieve their goals. Moreover, whoever thinks of rebelling against his/her government will be deprived of any support from the neighboring country.
Sudan can provide an additional gateway to her Southern neighbour’s foreign trade through the use of Port Sudan for the latter’s exports and imports. This will substantially help the economy of the nascent state.
Currently the only town in South Sudan that is having an efficient 24-hour power supply is Renk in Upper Nile State because it is linked to Sudan’s national power grid. This vital service can be extended to other parts of South Sudan. This will be of great help to the young nation.
The fact that more than half a million South Sudanese moved to Sudan after the eruption of the civil war in their country is a strong evidence of the especial relations between the two countries. Currently, there are more the 60,000 South Sudanese studying in Khartoum State’s schools and universities. This strong social bond truly reflects the relations between the two peoples.
Implementing all the agreements included in the Cooperation Agreement signed on the 27th of September 2012 is crucial in building trust between the two neighbors. This trust will pave the road for new avenues of cooperation. This in turn will help in solving the outstanding issues in their relations: namely the final status of Abyei Area and the border demarcation.
Thus, it is crystal-clear that there are huge opportunities and benefits for cooperation between Sudan and South Sudan in spite of their past and the current challenges to their relations. It is hoped that reason will prevail over emotions in this vitally important relation. Cooperation between the two neighbours will open the door widely for regional peace, stability and development. The challenge is there but together we can overcome it.
Photo: John Garang and Ali Othman Muhamed Taha at the signing of the CPA