BY DR. SUNDAY de JOHN
Origin and the purpose
The Tumaini Initiative goes beyond a simple diplomatic exchange between South Sudan and Kenya. It is a strategic move motivated by the politics of succession. The central men, Albino Mathem, the head of the government’s delegation to the talks, and Gen. Gregory Vasili, a member of the government delegation and Deputy Director General of the National Security Service’s (NSS) External Bureau, although regarded as the masterminds, are only playing a role of John the Baptist, preparing the way for the master planners (one vice president and a former minister who doubles as Member of SPLM Political Bureau).
The grand objective of the planners is to dismantle the Tiger Division and National Security, gain financially, and finally remove President Salva Kiir Mayardit from power.
Undermining the R-ARCSS
The actions of the men central to the Tumaini Initiative pose a threat to the stability of South Sudan by undermining the political framework of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). If the R-ARCSS is overridden by the Tumaini Initiative as it proposes through its many copied and pasted protocols, the parties to the R-ARCSS may be rendered irrelevant. The R-TGONU is the sole factor keeping the factions united. Should its foundation, the agreement itself be abrogated, it would strategically position President Salva Kiir to eliminate his adversaries whenever he desires.
Some provisions of the Tumaini Initiative posit that it is the only agreement that supersedes any agreement or law in the country. Given this strength, the parties to the R-ARCSS can no longer have a say after it has been replaced with the agreement reached at the Tumaini Initiative. The absence of well-elaborated electoral provisions in the Tumaini talks would further undermine democratic principles, leaving opposition leaders with stark dilemmas: either resort to conflict or risk becoming inconsequential in Juba.
Strategic SPLM-IO withdrawal, risks, and consequences
Dr. Riek Machar’s decision to leave the Tumaini Initiative raises concerns and sends a signal to other parties to the R-ARCSS, basically on the opposition side. It goes without saying that SSOA and the OPP must question their allegiance to a process that could marginalize them.
Was Kiir’s move to support the Tumaini Initiative a strategic decision to weaken Dr. Machar and other opposition groups, or was he duped? This question remains unanswered. The common citizens understand that the withdrawal of SPLM-IO could disrupt Tumaini’s progress. If Kiir persists with Tumaini as desired by its principals, he risks prioritizing minor threats over significant ones.
The Real SPLM under the leadership of Pagan Amum has never attracted any membership since it was established and declared in The Hague, he is even in crisis with management of less than 100 members. Likewise, Gen. Paul Malong’s SSUF/A can be judged by its students’ membership as always seen in photos. The army that was established was mismanaged to its total obliteration. They both pose no threat of arms or even ideas.
Gen. Stephen Buoy has no established army and will always claim victory for any incident that happens in the country. The loud claims of being a mercenary for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are a gratification rendered to him by Michael Makuei Lueth through his statements at the Tumaini venue. Motives for this glorification from Makuei will still surface. However, Dr. Machar’s potential return to conflict poses a greater danger than Pagan, Buoy, and Malong combined.
Manipulation and deception
Albino Mathem Ayuel and Gen. Gregory Vasili have manipulated the president with false claims of United States of America and Kenyan support. President Kiir’s choice of Mathem as his special envoy was perhaps a blunder. The content of his character could have first been verified. He is not the best link between South Sudan and the USA or South Sudan and Kenya. If at all the USA and Kenya have strained relationships with South Sudan, is Tumaini the panacea?
The birth of Tumaini was a deception and perhaps, Gregory’s vendetta against Akol Koor and alliance with Malong is revealing deeper, self-serving motives. Pagan Amum’s desperation drives his involvement. Isolated and seeking a political comeback, he aligns with Malong for survival.
Selective inclusion and exclusion
The swift abandonment of the National Salvation Front (NAS) under Gen. Thomas Cirillo and the SPLM-IO under Gen. Simon Gatwech and the removal of the invited parties such as SSUF-P and UDRM uncovers the true purpose and motivations behind the Tumaini Initiative. The main objective of the Tumaini brainchild was never dependent on the involvement of the said Generals and others, their involvement only served to enhance credibility and divert attention from the true agenda of elevating their project for international support. Their inclusion also served as a strategic maneuver to silence Sant’Egidio and legitimize the sidelining of the Rome peace process.
Internal opposition and strain
The resistance from Kiir’s camp, which comes from strong voices including Gen. Kuol Manyang and the SPLM leadership, adds to the complexity. If Kiir persists with Tumaini, it would mean rewarding the signatories with positions, which would deplete resources for loyalists and ignite internal strife.
President Salva should make wider consultations on this so that he can make an informed decision. He can undo the deception by suspending the Tumaini Initiative while turning the focus to the inter-party dialogue as the future of the country is now premised on the R-ARCSS. The critics of the R-ARCSS claim that it was not implemented to the letter and spirit, which is a true assertion but they should also underscore that R-ARCSS has significantly saved lives. R-ARCSS has stopped the war and has brought the country a relative calm. Whatever is not right can be discussed and rectified.
Speculative promises
The financial gains promised by the Tumaini Initiative are speculative at best. The true impact lies in its potential to reshape South Sudan’s political landscape, risking either enforced peace or renewed conflict. Pagan and Malong are strained internationally given their background in the mismanagement of the affairs of South Sudan and the atrocities they perpetuated during the conflict spanning from 2013 and therefore, they cannot attract any international support financially or even morally. We tried to solicit international support since 2018 but it has never been effective. South Sudanese must not be carried away by speculative promises. We have to work for ourselves as a country.
Finally, the Tumaini Initiative, under the guise of peace, is fraught with strategic manipulations and hidden agendas. Its success hinges on political ambitions, fragile alliances, and whether involved parties will prioritize national stability over personal gain.
The author is the leader of South Sudan United Front-Progress. He was the founding spokesperson of Gen. Paul Malong’s SSUF/A, a member of the Nation Executive Committee, and Secretary of ICT before they parted ways. He can be reached at drsundayalong4@gmail.com.
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.