Over the last week, South Sudan’s first vice president designate Riek Machar has not returned to Juba owing to continued disputes over how many soldiers and weapons can accompany him.
On Friday, President Salva Kiir’s government and Machar’s SPLM-In Opposition finally agreed that Machar may come to Juba with 195 soldiers each carrying an AK-47 rifle, in addition to a total of 20 rocket propelled grenade launchers and 20 PKM light machine guns for the whole group.
The close attention to troop and weapons numbers in Juba is because the government SPLA and SPLA-In Opposition have agreed to share Juba, each deploying limited numbers of troops inside the city. Limiting the troops present is known as ‘demilitarization,’ and has been one of the most contentious parts of the peace deal.
Below, Radio Tamazuj answers eight questions about the ‘demilitarization’ of Juba.
1. Why is Juba supposed to be demilitarized?
South Sudan’s civil war began in Juba as a fight between Dinka and Nuer soldiers of the presidential guards in a barracks in Juba. Quickly, this skirmish turned into ethnic killings of Nuer citizens by government-aligned troops. Riek Machar fled the city at this time. His house was shelled and his bodyguards were killed.
In order to reduce the chances of fighting break out in Juba again, the peace deal limits the number of government SPLA and rebel SPLA-IO troops in the city. The limitations are also in place so Machar feels safe in government-controlled Juba, and so the government feels secure with opposition forces in the city as well.
For tens of thousands of Nuer civilians currently living in UN protection camps, the presence of SPLA-IO troops is also meant to assure them that they can return safely to their homes.
2. How many troops does each side get to have in Juba?
According to an agreement signed by the government and SPLA-IO in November 2015, each side is allowed both army soldiers and police in Juba. Both government and SPLA-IO get an equal amount of police – 1500 each – who will serve together as a joint integrated police force in the city, but each side gets a different amount of soldiers.
The SPLA-IO is allowed 1410 total soldiers. These include 350 presidential guards, 50 troops for an administrative battalion, 140 for a logistical battalion, 620 for a shared unified command, 200 military police, and 50 National Security Service agents.
The government is allowed 3420 soldiers. These include 650 presidential guards, 250 band and ceremonial guards, a 700-person administrative battalion, a 700-person logistical battalion, 700 troops for a shared unified command, 300 military police, and 120 National Security Service agents.
Any excess troops are meant to be stationed at least 25 kilometres outside Juba. The Joint Military Ceasefire Commission (JMCC), a body comprised of government and SPLA-IO, is meant to carry out this process.
3. Who is supposed to verify if the two sides comply with these limits?
While JMCC carries out the demilitarization, responsibility for verifying the number of soldiers and police for each side falls with the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM). CTSAMM is an international team led by Ethiopian general Molla Hailemariam.
After verifying, CTSAMM is meant to send its reports to the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), the international body which oversees implementation of the peace deal. JMEC is led by former Botswana president Festus Mogae. JMCC is also overseen by JMEC.
4. How many SPLA-IO soldiers and police are in Juba right now?
1370 total soldiers and police of the SLPA-IO have arrived so far in Juba, according to JMEC, the government, and the SPLA-IO itself. These include 920 soldiers and 450 police, according to both the SPLA-IO and the government.
5. How many government soldiers are in Juba right now?
It is unknown how many soldiers and police the government has in Juba right now. The government says it has demilitarized the city by moving soldiers to nine cantonment sites at least 25 km outside the city, beginning in November of last year, but the government also prevented CTSAMM from verifying this process and from visiting cantonment sites.
It was only last Saturday 16 April when the SPLA said ceasefire monitors would be allowed to verify their troop numbers, according to SPLA spokesperson Lul Ruai Koang. Lul also claimed that the government has exactly and only 3420 troops stationed in Juba, the maximum allowable number.
He has further suggested that the government has withdrawn one battalion to each of nine cantonment sites. However, witnesses at one of these cantonment sites, where there is supposed to be a battalion of 700 soldiers, counted less than 300 on parade.
The ease with which soldiers could come and go from these sites to Juba is also a potential obstacle to verification.
CTSAMM voiced concerns about the situation in a statement on 17 March, announcing that the government was refusing to declare their original force levels in the city. CTSAMM explained that declaring original forces is the “first step” in demilitarization, because if they do not know how many troops were originally in Juba, they can not verify if the correct number of troops had moved out.
Since 17 March, CSTAMM has made no further statement regarding the government’s declaration of forces. But for his part, Festus Mogae, head of JMEC, which oversees the ceasefire mechanism, told reporters on Thursday, “I do not know if Juba has been demilitarized entirely.”
6. What about troops out of uniform or troops living in civilian areas?
There is some evidence that the government has actually brought more troops into the city. The SPLA-In Opposition recently alleged that trucks of young recruits have been brought into the city. Meanwhile, other witnesses speaking to Radio Tamazuj have seen young men or boys in military uniform being trucked into the city on numerous occasions.
Last Sunday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon personally called President Kiir and urged him to remove “additional troops” from Juba, suggesting Ban believes the government has not lived up to its commitment to demilitarize the city.
The Troika of US, UK, and Norway also said in a press statement Friday night: “It remains important that the government fully withdraws its troops from Juba as called for in the peace agreement,” suggesting they too believe Kiir’s side is violating its end of the deal.
Another consideration is that many top SPLA generals living in Juba in private residences retain bodyguards, while many SPLA are also still living in civilian parts of the city, not in barracks where ceasefire monitors could easily verify them.
MP James Aguer, who heads a peace-building committee, told Radio Tamazuj this week that many homes in Juba neighborhoods such as Mangaten, Munuki and Jebel Dinka have been occupied by soldiers, preventing civilians from returning from protection sites where they have taken up residence.
7. Can the rebels still bring more troops into Juba?
Since the rebels are allowed up to 1410 soldiers, and they have 920 in Juba already, they are allowed 490 more soldiers. They also have 450 police in Juba. This means the SPLA-IO is allowed to bring in an additional 1050 police.
There was some confusion about this on Tuesday of this week, when the SPLA-IO wanted to bring at least 260 soldiers into Juba accompanying Riek Machar and the SPLA-IO chief of staff.
This new batch of 260 soldiers together with the 920 SPLA-IO soldiers and 450 police already in Juba would have brought the total number of SPLA-IO military and police in Juba to 1630.
This number would have exceeded the threshold of 1370 police and soldiers that was agreed recently as the minimum number of SPLA-IO troops that should be deployed to Juba ahead of Machar’s return. For this reason the guarantors of the peace agreement called Machar’s demand to bring these soldiers a new condition.
However, the 260 more SPLA-IO soldiers in Juba would not have exceeded the total allowable number under the terms of the November deal on security arrangements, only the threshold level set by JMEC at a meeting in February.
In a new compromise deal proposed on Thursday and agreed on Friday this week, both sides have agreed that Machar may bring with him 195 soldiers, less than half of the remaining troops which the SPLA-IO is allowed.
The remaining SPLA-IO soldiers and 1050 more police officers will come at a later date.
8. What about weapons?
The amount and type of weapons allowed in Juba were not specifically agreed upon either in the August 2015 peace deal or in the November deal on security arrangements. Light weapons including AK-47 rifles, rocket propelled grenade launchers, PKM light machine guns, and 12.7 mm machine guns, are presumably allowed inside Juba.
Government forces are sometimes seen in Juba with heavier weapons including tanks, machine guns, RPGs and other heavy weapons, as well as attack helicopters either at the Juba Airport or at Salva Kiir’s Luri compound near to the city.
Currently, SPLA-IO forces in Juba have AK-47s, RPGs, and PKMs. It is not confirmed whether they have any other heavier weapons. Plans for them to bring anti-tank weapons to Juba this week have been canceled.
Photo: A group of troops withdrawn to Jebel Molo outside the city of Juba, 14 April 2016