The South Sudanese government says that oil production in the country has dropped only about a third since December, but the United States government said it has information that production has dropped by almost half.
“The conflict at this point has resulted in a reduction by almost half of oil output from South Sudan,” said Ambassador Donald Booth, the US special envoy, in a conference call last week with journalists.
The pre-crisis level of production was about 245,000 barrels per day. Half of that would be 122,500 bpd.
AFP reported last week that the drop was possibly even worse, citing industry sources.
But Petroleum Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau told Reuters on Saturday, “The output is 155,000 barrels per day,” which would represent a drop of 36.7% since before the conflict.
The oil minister’s claim contradicted information released by his own ministry on the same day, however.
A press release by the ministry’s press secretary Nicodemus Ajak Bior put the production figure 10,000 bpd higher: “Overall, South Sudan’s total oil production currently stands at 165,000 bbl/day.”
The statement described this as a 32% drop from pre-crisis production levels.
The press release said that Blocks 3 and 7, the only regions still producing, are down from 200,000 bpd to 165,000 bpd.
“This drop and fluctuation in production figures is mainly due to operational and material supply challenges,” according to the press release.
The ministry noted that there is still no oil production at Blocks 1, 2 , 4 or 5A in Unity State due to “ongoing insecurity.”
These fields stopped producing in December when oil workers evacuated. But the statement says government forces are in control of the fields and the ministry and its partners are “working closely to assess the level of damage to the facilities with view to bringing them back to production soonest.”